Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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305 FXUS64 KCRP 222319 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 619 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate heat risk - Low (15-25%) chance for showers today and tomorrow The mid-level high near SE TX today will translate eastward to the FL Panhandle by Monday evening with troughing moving across the Great Plains and a southwesterly to quasi-zonal flow over South Texas. Models are in pretty good agreement for the short-term for the most part except with PoP`s however. Have decided to stick with NBM for most of the forecast and needed to bump up PoP`s a little bit from the NBM as there are currently isolated showers on radar moving northward from the waters over the eastern half of the CWA. Tomorrow have maintained a low 15-25% chance for showers from the NBM. Surface temperatures range from 85 near the coast to around 95 inland under partly cloudy skies and light onshore flow. Heat Indices today and tomorrow will top out in the 100-105 degree range. Looking ahead, a cold front currently draped across the TX Panhandle and far west TX could affect our region later in the week but more on that in the long-term discussion. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mid-level ridge will flatten out across deep South Texas to start the period as a deep trough begins to take shape over the central plains. This trough is progged to become cut-off by mid week over OK/AR region with a deep northerly flow becoming established on the western side pushing a cold front across Texas. Latest GFS/EC guidance show the front approaching our CWA by Wednesday Evening. Moisture pooling ahead of this boundary with PWATs around 1.8 inches on Tuesday increasing to around 2.0 inches Wednesday, combined with moderate instability (CAPEs 1000-1500 j/kg) and little cap, will result in a medium (30-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is increasing that a cold front will push through the forecast area Wednesday Night bringing drier conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Raw GFS shows max temps in the upper 80s Thu- Fri in the wake of the front, while the NBM (biased toward recent trends) and MOS guidance shows lower 90s. Tracking the tropical disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center is now indicating that a tropical depression or tropical storm could form in the next few days while moving northward toward the Gulf of Mexico. Probability for development in the next 48 hours is a medium 40% and a high 80% through 7 days. This system is not expected to directly impact South Texas, though we could potentially see increasing swells, increased rip current risk and minor coastal flooding. These impacts would generally occur mid-late week. Continue to check back for future updates and for more information visit hurricanes.gov. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Brief MVFR VSBYs will be possible from ALI to VCT due to patchy fog and MVFR CIGs across COT early Monday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will prevail across S TX through the TAF period. Surface winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming east to southeast around 10KT during the day Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow over the next few days will become weak at times during the night-time hours accompanied by a low to moderate chance for showers. Swell heights are expected to increase during the latter half of the week as an approaching cold front and a developing tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will lead to a shift to northerly winds. This could result in a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday and Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible. Be sure to check Hurricanes.gov for the latest information on the tropics. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 92 76 91 / 0 20 10 40 Victoria 73 93 73 94 / 0 30 10 50 Laredo 75 95 75 94 / 0 10 10 20 Alice 73 94 73 94 / 0 20 10 40 Rockport 79 93 79 92 / 0 30 10 40 Cotulla 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 10 20 Kingsville 75 93 75 92 / 0 20 10 40 Navy Corpus 80 88 80 88 / 10 20 20 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...TE/81