183
FXUS64 KCRP 270854
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
354 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Key Message:

- High rip current risk and coastal flooding potential continue
  into the weekend.

The primary weather concern through the weekend will be the
elevated risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding due to
distant swells generated by what was Hurricane Helene. A high
risk of rip currents remains in effect through Saturday evening,
and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in place until Saturday morning.

Apart from the marine hazards, quiet weather conditions are
expected to persist through the short-term period as surface high
pressure builds in behind yesterday`s frontal boundary. This will
result in a drier and less humid air mass dominating the region,
effectively ruling out any rainfall through the start of this
weekend.

Daytime temperatures are forecast to gradually rise to the
mid 80s to mid 90s today and the low to mid 90s by Saturday,
influenced by both upper and surface ridging. Fortunately, despite
the warming trend, humidity will stay relatively comfortable, as
surface dew points are expected to range in the 50s and 60s.
Tonight, mostly clear skies, light winds, and reduced humidity
will contribute to cooler conditions, with lows generally dipping
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Remnants of Tropical Storm Helene churn over the Ohio Valley early
next week before merging with the main upper trough over the Great
Lakes midweek traversing northeastward. A broad ridge will replace
majority of the southern half CONUS, leading to dry and rain-free
conditions with PWATs around 1.0" or less through Wednesday. This
ridge will shift towards the SE CONUS late in the week, resulting in
an increase in low-level moisture over South Texas as easterly flow
returns. The increase in low-level moisture pushing PWATs to 1.5-
2.0" (75th percentile) along with an approaching weak tropical wave
will allow for low rain chances to return Thursday along over the
Coastal Plains.

High temperatures will remain in the 90s across the area with lows
from the mid 60s inland to mid 70s along the coast as skies remain
mostly clear allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Good news,
dewpoints generally from the 60s to lower 70s will limit heat index
values to less than 100 through the work week. Minor heat-related
impacts will persist daily through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected across South Texas for the next 24
hours with clear skies and calm winds, as surface high pressure
settles into the region in the wake of yesterday`s cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across our offshore
waters south of Port Aransas through 11 AM today. Swells from
Hurricane Helene will continue to impact our coastal waters
today, and these elevated seas may linger into Saturday.
Otherwise, winds are expected to remain light and variable with
seas decreasing to 1 to 2 Saturday night through Tuesday. Light to
moderate east to northeast flow will dominate the latter half of
the week. Low (10-25%) rain chances return Tuesday, mainly across
the offshore waters, then shift closer to the coast by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          92  64  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            93  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             92  67  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          88  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           94  67  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        91  68  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       86  73  90  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ270.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JM/75