Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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862 FXUS64 KCRP 260535 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Based on the latest dewpoint analysis, the cold front was located along a line from near Cotulla to Cuero and drifting slowly south. Moisture pooling ahead of this boundary (PWATs 1.9") combined with marginal instability (CAPEs 1500-2000 j/kg) and presence of an upper level trough axis draped overhead will continue to enhance convection along the southern portions of our county warning area for the next few hours. The latest model guidance still supports the front reaching the coast around 06z with drier air filtering in in its wake. Winds should pick up over the gulf waters as the front moves off the coast with SCEC conditions possible overnight, possibly reaching SCA conditions Thursday morning. Current forecast is on track and no changes are anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening. - High risk of rip currents Thursday into Thursday night. - Increased risk of Coastal Flooding Thursday night into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are currently impacting portions of the CWA this afternoon. The activity has been sparked ahead of a cold front in response to a highly unstable airmass in place with MUCAPE values at over 4000J/kg, very little CIN and enough moisture (PWATs 1.75"). SPC has maintained the eastern third of the CWA under a Marginal risk for severe weather through this evening. The special 18Z sounding is indicating DCAPE values over 1300 J/kg, therefore, strong winds will be the primary hazard with this activity in addition to some small hail. The aforementioned cold front is progged to arrive later tonight bringing much drier and cooler air into the region effectively ending our rain chances. Winds will briefly pick-up behind the boundary resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions over portions of the marine zones. Although temperatures will be a bit slower to respond, minimum temps are forecast to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s range tonight. Highs on Thursday will peak in the upper 80s to low 90s, but minimums Thursday night will drop into the 60s areawide. How nice for a change! A High risk of rip currents remains in effect for Thursday along the Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas coast. This is as a result of the arrival of longer swell periods in association to Hurricane Helene in the eastern Gulf. After taking a look at observations from both buoy 42019 and 42020, and noticing that both are reporting swell periods of only 5 seconds at 1 ft, have opted for not issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory just yet for tonight`s high tide cycle. Last night`s tides made it to 1.9 ft MSL and no flooding was registered. Tonight, tides are forecast to be around 2.0 ft MSL, but swell periods over 10 seconds are not progged to arrive until later in the day on Thursday. However, have passed this information along to the evening shift so they can keep track of any changes in coastal conditions. A Coastal Flood Advisory will be much likely to occur on the Thursday night high tide cycle. P-ETTS are indicating tides to reach 2.5 ft MSL with 12-14 second swell periods. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Key Messages: - Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding late this week as Hurricane Helene moves across the Gulf. We open up the long term forecast with the remnants of Helene moving across the southeast US and an upper level ridge building across the southwest US. As Helene moves off to the east, the ridge will expand across the Plains. Much drier air and increased subsidence will keep us dry through the weekend. Moisture will begin to push back into the area early next week which will lead to some low end rain chances, mainly over our coastal waters. Temperatures will be rather pleasant over the next several days. Highs will settle into the low to mid 90s. Drier air will keep heat indices in check with a minor heat risk through the period. Clear skies and dry conditions will allow temps to drop into the 60s for our inland areas. We will be holding onto a few coastal/marine concerns as we head into the weekend. Increased swells from Hurricane Helene will begin to arrive over the next day and continue for a few days. Gerling- Hanson plots suggest 12-14s swells along our coast which will be more than enough to drive water up our Gulf-facing beaches. PETSS guidance hints at tides approaching 2.5ft MSL during Friday`s high tide cycle. In addition, the high risk of rip currents is likely to be extended beyond Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Cold front will be moving off the coast within the hour with drier air filtering into South Texas in its wake. Skies will gradually clear out overnight with VFR conditions and light north winds persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A weak to moderate onshore flow this evening will become moderate to strong offshore flow early Thursday morning in response to a passing frontal boundary. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the near and offshore waters north of Port Aransas on Thursday. Waves are likely to become elevated offshore Thursday afternoon, which may prompt the Advisory to be extended. Across the southern waters and bays, winds will generally be at moderate levels. Some thunderstorms will be possible ahead and along the boundary this evening, with strong winds being the primary hazard. As Helene moves across the Gulf, increased swells will lead to hazardous marine conditions as we head into the weekend. Brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop at times. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue over the weekend. Rain chances gradually increase early next week as moisture begins to return. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 68 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 91 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 91 67 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 91 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 72 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 93 65 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 90 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 75 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday morning for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ255-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...JM/75