Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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394 FXUS64 KCRP 241140 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 640 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A mid to upper level trough will continue to push off to the east over the Ohio River Valley as an mid level ridge builds in from the west. A weak surface cold front will remain stalled to the north of the region along Central Texas. Concurrently, low level moisture will continue to return to the region. This is expected to allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Coastal Bend with the arrival of the sea breeze this afternoon. Tomorrow however, the mid to upper level trough is expected to track further south providing for more lift for storms to initiate, though drier air aloft will keep these mostly isolated to scattered in nature. The front should be through most of the area between Wednesday evening to Thursday morning bringing drier air behind it. Though temperatures will still remain in the 90s each day, Wednesday should be slightly more bearable with less humidity beginning around the afternoon. I know this wasn`t the "cold front" everyone was hoping for but there are some silver linings. Lows will be in the low 70s across much of the area Wednesday night with some 60s along the northern portions of the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Key Messages: - Cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning - Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding Thursday and Friday in relation to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine A cold front is expected to push across South Texas sometime on Wednesday night or Thursday, depending on which model you believe. The NAM continues to be a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF. Will lean toward the NAM a bit more as, as previously mentioned, it usually handles these shallow airmasses better. With that, it looks like the cold front will pass through sometime Thursday, with dry air filtering in behind. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will move quickly northward through Thursday across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, reinforcing drier air in wake of the front over South Texas through the latter part of this week. This will lead to minimal rain chances through Saturday. In addition, daily max heat indices and temperatures will be limited to the 90s with low temperatures dropping into the 60s Thursday night and Friday night. Currently, Corpus Christi is forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s Friday morning. Last but certainly not least, swell periods increase to over 10 seconds along with wave heights 4-6 feet. Although we have offshore flow, energy propagating from current PTC9 could lead to wave runup and increase the risks for coastal flooding and rip currents. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Light winds this morning has helped promote MVFR conditions across the Coastal Plains. VFR conditions return by 14Z as southeasterly winds increase to around 10 knots. Continued with a mention of SHRA at ALI/CRP/VCT late this morning through the afternoon as the latest CAMS hint at a fairly active sea breeze. Light and variable winds tonight will likely lead to another round of MVFR conditions at ALI/VCT. While confidence is low right now, we could see showers and thunderstorms introduced at VCT this evening as some guidance brings a broken line of convection into the Victoria Crossroads. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Weak onshore flow will continue through midweek, bringing a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday, winds will strengthen slightly, becoming moderate and shifting to the north by Thursday as a cold front moves in. This could lead to brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rain chances will decrease after the front passes, with no significant precipitation expected the rest of the week. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will move north across the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased swells toward the week`s end. For updates on tropical cyclone development, visit hurricanes.gov.&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 76 93 73 / 30 20 30 10 Victoria 94 72 93 68 / 30 20 30 0 Laredo 95 75 96 71 / 10 20 30 10 Alice 93 73 95 71 / 30 10 30 10 Rockport 92 77 93 74 / 30 20 30 20 Cotulla 96 75 97 71 / 10 20 20 10 Kingsville 91 74 93 72 / 40 10 30 10 Navy Corpus 88 79 88 76 / 40 20 30 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 76 93 73 / 30 20 30 10 Victoria 94 72 93 68 / 30 20 30 0 Laredo 95 75 96 71 / 10 20 30 10 Alice 93 73 95 71 / 30 10 30 10 Rockport 92 77 93 74 / 30 20 30 20 Cotulla 96 75 97 71 / 10 20 20 10 Kingsville 91 74 93 72 / 40 10 30 10 Navy Corpus 88 79 88 76 / 40 20 30 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...TC/95