884
FXUS65 KCYS 262016
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
216 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds are likely in the wind prone and gap areas of
  southeast Wyoming early this morning through the mid-
  afternoon. Please see the latest High Wind Watch Statement for
  further details.

- A much warmer, milder week ahead as an upper-level ridge
  overtakes the region.

- Chances for organized strong to potentially severe
  thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

The High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire at the allotted
time slot. Winds have gusted to High Wind levels across the
Arlington wind prone and the I-80 Summit this afternoon. Winds
for the most part of decreased with all sites showing wind gusts
hovering in the 50 to 55 mph range. These wind speeds are
progged to continue to decrease as the afternoon wears on. With
the wind threat decreasing the next focus will be for the
development of some isolated thunderstorms across the far
northern Nebraska Panhandle later this afternoon and into the
evening hours. HI-RES models show a storm or two across Dawes
county that could be strong. This thunderstorm activity will be
driven by the passing shortwave trough aloft but this feature
is expected to quickly move so any thunderstorm activity will be
short lived and should be ending by 7pm this evening.

Monday will be a very quiet and dry day across the region as
upper level ridging builds aloft. Temperatures will rebound
nicely during the afternoon with temperatures expected to climb
into the 70s across much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Extended forecast looks active heading out of the long holiday
weekend. Although active, Tuesday will likely be a mild and dry
day for most as an upper-level ridge builds over the Rockies.
Could see an isolated storm or two develop off the high terrain
Tuesday afternoon, but the chance of this looks low. Storm
chances look better on Wednesday as an embedded disturbance
moves through the ridge. This will likely spark scattered
convection mostly for areas east of the Laramie Range. GFS
soundings continue to show the potential for severe
thunderstorms in the Nebraska panhandle. Soundings show MUCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg and PWs approaching 1 inch. This
will lead to a large hail threat and potentially minor isolated
flooding.

After Wednesday, daily precipitation chances look possible through
the end of the week. More disturbance driven storms look possible on
Thursday with some weak energy moving across the CWA. Better
precipitation chances are possible Friday afternoon and evening as a
shortwave drops out of the north. Along with storms, this shortwave
will also bring cooler temperatures to the region on Friday. Highs
will be below average for the end of May. Headed into the
weekend, precipitation chances could still be possible as the
shortwave exits out of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Overall, minimal aviation concerns are expected through the TAF
period. Gusty winds are likely at all terminals throughout the
afternoon, but should begin to ease this evening. There is a slight
chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the
Nebraska panhandle, which could produce gusty winds and small
hail.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ110-116-
     117.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...SF