609
FXUS63 KDDC 201856
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
156 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across west central
  Kansas and central Kansas tonight.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday with a general warming
  trend into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

WV imagery indicates a large scale upper level trough of low
pressure dropping slowly south through the Pacific Northwest into
the Great Basin. Meanwhile, a distinct upper level shortwave trough
is lifting northeast off the Pacific into southern California. Near
the surface, a weak surface low is shifting slowly east through
southwest Kansas near and along the Oklahoma border.

There is a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across west central
Kansas and central Kansas tonight as the SREF indicates a broader
scale upper level trough of low pressure swinging through the
Northern Rockies while a smaller upper level shortwave lifts
northeast through the Desert Southwest into the high plains of
eastern Colorado. Lee side cyclogenesis is projected to take place
in northeast Colorado this evening with an attendant warm front
extending northeast into central Nebraska. Meanwhile, prevailing
southerlies ahead of an advancing trough axis associated with the
surface low lifting northeast into western Nebraska will provide
ample deep layer moisture with surface dewpoints well up into the
60s(F). As a result, thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
evening as a series of H5 vort maxima eject northeast out of the
Southern Rockies into Western High Plains, interacting with a cold
front approaching from the northwest through northeast Colorado and
southwest Nebraska. Much of southwest/south central Kansas should
remain clear of thunderstorm development as a drier air mass spreads
eastward through western Kansas in wake of an advancing trough
axis/dryline. However, a minimal shot for storms exists in vicinity
of the I-70 corridor where the HREF shows a 10% probability for
6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early Tuesday morning.

Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as westerly
downsloping develops behind a lee side trough advancing through
southwest Kansas. The latest HREF paints an 80-90% probability of
lows dropping below 65F in west central Kansas to only a 10%
probability in south central Kansas. A cold front pushing through
western Kansas Tuesday morning will help curb higher temperatures
across much of the region with H85 temperatures falling well below
20C by the afternoon. The HREF shows only a 30-50% probability of
highs climbing above 75F in west central Kansas to a 70 to 90%
probability of highs exceeding 80F in south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Another round of diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible (20-
30%) across west central/central Kansas late Tuesday as medium range
ensembles indicate a secondary upper level shortwave trough
transitioning east through northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas
Tuesday evening. A series of H5 vort maxima are projected to track
through the area in question, interacting with H7 frontogenetic
banding developing in wake of a frontal boundary driving southward
into the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma. The latest NBM paints
only paints a very minimal 20% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding
0.1 of an inch in vicinity of the I-70 corridor by early Wednesday
morning. Very spotty thunderstorm chances (20%) return Thursday as
another upper level trough of low pressure kicks eastward out of the
Pacific Northwest into the Northern High Plains, sending an attendant
cold front southeastward into western Kansas sometime Thursday
night/early Friday.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast Wednesday with the NBM
indicating a 50-60% probability of highs exceeding 75F in west
central Kansas to a 80-90% probability of highs exceeding 75F in
south central Kansas. A warming trend is then expected through the
end of the week as departing surface high pressure returns
southerlies to southwest/central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

IFR/MVFR cigs will linger in vicinity of all TAF sites through
mid/late-afternoon as prevailing low level stratus is slow to
lift/scatter out. Widespread VFR conditions are expected to return
this evening. Light and variable winds through early afternoon due
to a small surface low edging east through southwest Kansas are
expected to become east-southeasterly around 10 to 20kt by this
evening as the surface low washes out while another low/lee side
trough develops in eastern Colorado. Westerly winds 10 to 20kt are
then forecast to develop overnight...generally after 08-10Z...as
the lee side trough exits eastern Colorado, pushing east
through southwest Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson