343
FXUS63 KDDC 021609
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1109 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong south winds are expected after 10 am Sunday, gusting to
  near 40 mph.

- More scattered thunderstorms are expected after 4 pm Sunday.
  Some of these storms are expected to be severe, with large
  hail and damaging winds.

- More summer-like weather is expected this week, with warm to
  hot afternoons, and little if any chance of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted an impressive
MCS (mesoscale convective system) along the KS/OK border,
moving southeast into Oklahoma. The airmass over SW KS has been
strongly overturned by prior convection, but additional showers
and storms will likely percolate through sunrise favoring the
southern zones. With elevated moist, south/southeast winds, many
locations will remain above 60 through sunrise Sunday.

Under modest westerly midlevel flow Sunday, lee cyclogenesis will
deepen to near 994 mb over eastern Colorado through the
afternoon. Once convective debris clouds clear and mixing
commences after 10 am, strong south winds are expected through
the afternoon. With 850 mb winds near 30 kts, south winds of
20-30 mph will be common, with gusts near 40 mph. Increased wind
grids to the 90%ile of the NBM. With the efficient boundary
layer mixing, and a net warming of 2-4C at 850 mb, lower 90s
will be common at peak heating. Models also show several degrees
of warming at 700 mb, with the 00z NAM as warm as +14C at DDC
at 7 pm Sunday. Given the strength of this capping inversion,
NAM is resistant to developing convection in the DDC CWA through
7 pm. The dryline is expected to be in the vicinity of, or just
east of, the CO/KS line at peak heating, with dewpoints in the
60s supporting strong to extreme instability, with MU CAPE as
high as 5000 J/kg. Many CAMs and other models are a few degrees
cooler at 700 mb, and thus allow thunderstorms to develop in the
vicinity of US 83 in the 4-7 pm time range. 00z ARW suggests
several supercells may evolve and translate eastward Sunday 7-10
pm, and given the sufficient bulk shear and high instability,
large hail appears probable from any convection. After
coordinating with SPC, an upgrade in severe wind/hail
probability is warranted for Sunday. Hail 2-3 inches in diameter
is expected from the most sustained supercells, especially
early in the event, in the 5-7 pm time range. All of this
stated, forcing for ascent to trigger convective initiation in
this high octane environment east of the dryline is subtle, with
no obvious shortwaves present, so only a few supercells may
result. As such, kept pops in the conservative chance category
of 30-40% for now.

Southeast winds and continued moisture advection east of the
dryline will result in another warm morning sunrise Monday,
with many locations remaining above 60 degrees.

Modest westerly midlevel flow continues Monday, but models prog
pressure gradients to be much weaker, with much less wind expected.
00z models continue to show a moist, highly unstable environment
over the central and eastern zones Monday afternoon/evening, but
again forcing is weak and nebulous. Model consensus is the
southeast and eastern zones will be favored for any
thunderstorms at peak heating Monday, but coverage may be very
low, so pops are necessarily very low as well. Any updraft that
can mature Monday will have access to extreme instability once
again, with CAPE > 4000 J/kg, with very large hail the primary
risk. Afternoon air temperatures in the lower 90s are again
expected, which will combine with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
produce heat indices well into the 90s across southeast zones.
Apparent temperature grids show a heat index near 100 across
Barber county 4 pm Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

We have arrived in meteorological summer, and the models suggest
a synoptic pattern evolution reflecting that, through the
upcoming week. The northern branch of the jet stream will be
increasingly prominent by Tuesday, with a strong shortwave
trough progressing through the northern plains and the Canadian
prairies. A weak northerly wind shift will result Tuesday, but
with no impact on afternoon temperatures, remaining in the upper
80s and lower 90s. Low chance pops for the eastern zones from
the NBM were retained Tuesday, but the majority of showers and
thunderstorms with the frontal boundary are expected to remain
east of SW KS. 00z EPS ensemble members show this trend, with
only a 10-30% probability of QPF > 0.10 inch east of US 283
Tuesday, and near 0% west of US 283. A fancy way to say most of
us are going to remain dry.

Starting Wednesday, the large strong subtropical midlevel high
that has been baking Mexico the past few weeks will begins its
annual advance northward. Model consensus places a 592 dm upper
high center over New Mexico 7 pm Wednesday. Medium range models
show strong height/thickness increases; expect Wednesday afternoon
temperatures to surge into the mid 90s. Of course, rain chances
will dwindle to zero at this point in the strongly subsident
regime. The atmosphere warms even more Thursday, with 500 mb
heights in the 590-592 dm range over SW KS. However, models are
in good agreement with another weak cold frontal boundary
supplying an easterly wind component Thursday afternoon, which
will keep the heat restrained to the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Some guidance suggests some elevated thunderstorms north of this
boundary Thursday night (slight chance pops from the NBM), but
guidance consistency and thus confidence is very low.

Long range models do show the high pressure ridge weakening and
retreating southward next weekend. NBM`s cooling trend and
uptick in pops in the far extended, for next weekend, were
accepted.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The main focus on the TAFs is another complex of thunderstorms developing
across the region and moving across the terminals tonight in the 23Z
to 03Z timeframe, give or take an hour. Will include VCTS and CB
groups in for the terminals to account for this activity. Wind gusts
+50 kt cannot be ruled out with the strongest of cells. However,
it is too early and a bit uncertain to put these outflow winds in
the TAFs for now. Will watch and amend as needed once confidence
increases. Some GR may be possible as well, particularly for KGCK
and KLBL. Winds will be SE/S 10-20 kt out side of storms.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Sugden