757
FXUS63 KDDC 261006
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dry throughout the forecast period and beyond; ensembles have
all of SW Kansas below a 5% chance through the next 10 days.

- Light winds and near/slightly above average temperatures are
  also expected through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

A large upper-level ridge currently dominates the Rockie Mountains
with the high pressure system stretching over SW Kansas. The east-
central CONUS has an upper-level low pressure system. The ridging
present over the Rockies has vertical continuity with highs
throughout the entire atmospheric column. Most of the Great Plains
is currently playing host to surface high pressure systems. Both
ensembles and various models depict a holding pattern with the upper-
level ridging maintaining itself over the forecast period for at
least the next few days. With the pattern reluctant to change, SW
Kansas will continue to see very dry weather and relatively weak
winds that struggle to exceed 15 mph through the forecast period.
Very modest CAA will help temperatures stay near-normal with highs
in the 80s through Monday which is around 5 degrees warmer than
average at this point in the year. Current forecast tracks for
Hurricane Helene have a eastward turn after making landfall. However,
the chances for residual precipitation to reach SW Kansas remain
below 5% via ensembles.

The closest thing SW Kansas will see to a pattern shift will arrive
Monday. Ensembles have an upper-level trough moving across the USA/CA
border. However, without a southern trend in the troughs tracking,
the only effect SW Kansas will experience is a weak cold front
passage Monday afternoon. Winds will shift from being variable to
coherent winds from the north. Ensembles have moisture and dewpoint
values too low for precipitation to have a meaningful chance (<5%).
Additionally, Tuesdays highs are forecast to be in the low to mid
70s before recovering back into the 80s on Wednesday.

Long range ensembles have a subtle upper-level ridge taking place
once again over the Great Plains on Tuesday before the flow takes on
a more zonal regime. Functionally, outside of the cold front,
surface weather conditions will stay static with highs in the low
80s, weak winds, and virtually zero chance of precipitation from
ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through the TAF
period. Light and primarily southerly winds (5-15 mph) will persist
as surface high pressure systems reside over the Great Plains. Winds
Thursday and Friday mornings might decrease to light and variable.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ