Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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049 FXUS63 KDDC 201726 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of storms south of Highway 50 this evening - Widespread rain and thunderstorms expected Saturday night, with locally heavy rainfall expected. - Dramatically cooler behind a strong cold front Sunday and Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The weather pattern over the next few days will consist of an upper level area of high pressure over the Southern Plains and an upper level low sitting above the Desert Southwest this morning, Four Corners region tonight, and into the Central High Plains by Saturday night. Southwest flow aloft is expected over the area as this feature approaches. As for the observable weather across western Kansas, expect mostly clear skies this morning with increased mid level cloudiness this afternoon. A weak mid to upper level shortwave will move into far southwestern Kansas this afternoon and may trigger a few thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that do form will glide eastward along the KS/OK border as we head into the evening hours and into central KS/OK by late evening. Most of the storms tonight are not expected to be severe, but the strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts approaching 60 mph. The hail threat is minimal, but not zero if these storms move into an area that has more moisture or instability that forecasted. Most places will remain dry as this disturbance passes, but short range ensemble models depict a 20-40 percent chance of more than a tenth of precipitation south of Highway 50. As for temperatures, highs today are expected to range from the upper 80s across portions of west central Kansas to upper 90s to around 100 degrees across south central Kansas. Lows tonight will range from the low 60s west to low 70s across central Kansas. A better chance of precipitation is expected Saturday through Sunday afternoon as the aforementioned upper level low moves just north of the area. Precipitation chances increase first across far southwestern Kansas Saturday morning and spread through the remainder of the forecast area by Saturday evening. The best chance of precipitation will be Saturday night with showers tapering off Sunday. By the end of the event, the probability of receiving over a half of an inch of rain ranging from 20-40 percent across south central Kansas with over a 50 percent chance north of a line from Great Bend, Dodge City, to Liberal. A few places mainly north of the aforementioned line will most likely receive over an inch of rain with this system. This system will also usher in colder air to the area Saturday through next week as a long wave upper level trough digs into the Plains. This push of cooler air will start Saturday across far western Kansas where highs will struggle to reach to around 80 degrees. The remainder of the forecast area should reach into the 80s with some low 90s across south central Kansas. Highs Sunday then look to range from around 60 degrees across west central Kansas to upper 70s across south central Kansas. The coldest morning looks to be Monday morning where minimums will range from around 40 degrees across west central Kansas to around 50 degrees across south central Kansas. Highs will generally be in the 70s Monday through Wednesday before the chances of highs around 80 degrees increase Thursday. There may be a weak disturbance that brings increased cloudiness and a slight chance of precipitation Tuesday. Otherwise expect dry conditions next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 At 17Z this Friday afternoon an area of weakening thunderstorms were accompanying an upper level trough as it moves northeast toward extreme southwest Kansas. These showers/thunderstorms will spread across southwest Kansas between 20z today and 01z Saturday with only a 20% chance or less for any of these thunderstorms to impact the Dodge City and Liberal areas. Will therefore include a period of VCTS in these tafs late today to account for this. The next better chance for precipitation will be after 15z Saturday as a stronger upper low/trough approaches from the west. Ceilings this afternoon will be at or above 8000ft AGL. Winds outside these thunderstorms will be primarily south southeast at 10 to 15 knots today. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Burgert