847
FXXX12 KWNP 260031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to low levels. The largest event of the period
was a C5.8 flare at 25/1726 UTC from around the SW limb. Newly numbered
region 3692 (S09E18, Cro/beta) was relatively quiet. The remaining
spotted regions on the visible disk only exhibited minor changes. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance of M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 26-28 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to
moderate levels over 26-28 May, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Total magnetic field
strength steadily declined from a peak of 9 nT to 6 nT by the days end.
The Bz component reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds varied
between ~350-440 km/s. Phi angle transitioned to predominantly positive
after 25/0800 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible over the next three
days due to coronal hole influence. Additional enhancements may occur on
26 May due to periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 23 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on
26 May due to potential combined effects from a coronal hole and a the
periphery of a passing CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on
27-28 May.