Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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269 FXUS63 KDLH 230754 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A quiet week is expected across the Northland with dry conditions for most through next weekend. - Temperatures will start out near normal today then rise to 10 to around 15 degrees above normal by mid-week, continuing above normal into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A quiet week is expected across the Northland with dry conditions for most through next weekend. An upper level trough will dive southeast today into the Northern Plains, continuing southeast tonight. This feature will have limited moisture available and much of the guidance, including most of the 80 ensemble members of the ECMWF/GFS, have little precipitation with this trough for tonight into Tuesday. We will carry low, 20-30%, POPs for western portions of the Northland tonight with QPF less than 0.10". Tonight will again be cool, especially for the Arrowhead and interior portions of northwest Wisconsin where some patchy frost could again occur. If cloud cover is more extensive than currently forecast, we may be a bit low on our temperatures. The upper trough will continue south on Tuesday eventually cutting off and retrograding across the south-central CONUS. Upper ridging will move east over the Northland mid-late week and with the upper low to the south, creating a rex block which will aid in keeping the Northland dry into Saturday with high temperatures rising 10 to around 15F above normal by mid-week with these warmer temperatures continuing into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Patchy fog will be possible tonight and observations reveal some has formed with the visibility to IFR in spots. We added a mention of fog to KHYR/KHIB/KBRD despite the models having probabilities of MVFR visibility of only 10-20%. The fog will lift by 14Z then expect VFR conditions with mid to high clouds moving through the region. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Winds today into Tuesday will be at or less than 15 knots with only a few gusts a bit higher at times. The wind will become easterly today as high pressure moves through. Winds will become southerly tonight then they will become onshore Tuesday. Given the expected winds, wave heights will be at or below 3 feet through Tuesday. Looking ahead, not periods of stronger winds are expected through late week. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012- 018>021-026-035>038. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Melde