Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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684 FXUS63 KDMX 031126 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 626 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms passing through this morning, highest chances over northern Iowa - Severe storms, locally heavy rainfall possible later Tuesday into Tuesday evening - Favoring dry conditions midweek into next weekend with lower humidity and seasonal temperatures && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Scattered storms were developing over northwest Iowa with the convection over Nebraska greatly diminished from its earlier intensity in the night. There was a short-lived hail core up near Hawarden around 1230am, which produced 1.25 inch hail. Convective allowing models (CAMs) such as the HRRR, RRFS, RAP initialized well with placement, though the HRRR is a bit hot on wind gusts in Nebraska given the lack of any reports. The northwest Iowa storms should continue off to the east-northeast into southern Minnesota and north central Iowa and will have to watch for any healthier cores for possible hail. As of the Nebraska convection, the leftovers will continue a downward trend, but still may get a few gusts of 30 to perhaps 40 mph. Will have to watch as some guidance shows a weak MCV that may try to kick off new development toward sunrise. Even if this does occur, it looks to stay below severe limits. As these storms depart later this morning, the expectation is for a minimum in activity across much of central Iowa into tonight with just some weak vorticity passing overhead for forcing. Attention turns to the Pacific Northwest region late Monday as a longwave trough moves eastward and digs and negatively tilts into the upper Midwest into the day Tuesday. MLCAPEs at or topping 2000 J/kg are likely ahead of a surface cold front Tuesday afternoon with marginal deep layer shear for storm organization. Lapse rates have looked modest staying largely at or below 7C/km the last few nights, but both the NAM and GFS show an area over southern Iowa with low level rates above 7C/km. Forecast soundings show quasi-unidirectional flow with speed shear with this flow favoring large hail as storms develop. Soundings also show dry air in the 800-600mb layer and sub-cloud layer and while downdraft CAPE values are low, this sounding profile may support gusty downburst winds. As for flash flooding, the heavy rainfall parameters continue to look favorable with high precipitable water values, deep warm cloud depths, and 850-300mb flow somewhat parallel to the cold front. That said, rainfall amounts do not look too alarming and largely between 1 to 2 inches in small areas. One would have to push to the NBM 90th percentile to see amounts above 2 inches. While our area missed some of the potential priming rains yesterday/yesterday evening, forecast rainfall would near the lowest values of 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance in our area. As for rivers, modest rises are possible through the week. However, outside of the river flood warning and watch already out on the West Fork Des Moines River forecast points, ensemble QPF 72 hour best forecast rainfall would not have any other forecast points exceeding flood stage. This is supported by the experimental HEFS (Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service) and its 50% chance of exceedance showing similar. The severe weather threat and storms will end by late evening Tuesday or the very early morning hours of Wednesday and the cold front will sweep east of the state with lower dewpoint air and more seasonal temperatures following. The longwave trough will wrap up with some differences on the exact evolution, but the idea though will be that Iowa will be beneath northwesterly flow with surface winds averaging from the northwest through the end of the week. Thursday looks to be the breeziest day with winds averaging 15 to 25 mph. Forecast is favoring dry conditions, but depending on placement of shortwaves rotating through the northwesterly flow could see a passing shower. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Showers associated with a mesoscale convective vortex will move over the northern terminals this morning along with MVFR ceilings. FOD may be on the edge of the showers with MCW more centered in them so have prevailing SHRA at both sites. ALO will be more hit or miss, but another line of showers is developing from HPT to AMW so have VCSH for now. Farther south, have gone dry with too low of confidence in anything occurring. Also low confidence in any thunder occurring so have left out as well. Once this activity moves out, should see VFR conditions prevailing. There is a low chance of a shower or storm east (ALO, OTM) late this afternoon or evening, but given such a low chance have not included. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Ansorge