Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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582 ACUS01 KWNS 290119 SWODY1 SPC AC 290118 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail remain possible from the central High Plains into deep South Texas. ...Central/Southern High Plains into OK... Numerous severe thunderstorms are ongoing for eastern CO southward through the OK and TX Panhandles and into the Permian Basin/southwest TX. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to support long hodographs, with both left and right splits maintaining robust updrafts. This has led to a somewhat chaotic convective evolution throughout the region, particularly across the northwest TX Panhandle and farther north in eastern CO. However, in both locations, recent radar trends suggest that a more forward-propagating, outflow-dominant structure may be evolving. This move away from a supercell mode should result in a decreasing risk for large hail, although some strong gusts remain possible. Farther south, a notable cold pool has developed and is surging eastward into western OK. A few stronger gusts are possible within this line, but the eastward motion of this line will displace it east of the strengthening low-level jet, which is forecast to remain over the southern High Plains. This displacement from the low-level jet combined with much weaker buoyancy currently observed over central OK should mitigate the overall intensity of this line. A supercell mode has been maintained across the Texas South Plains. As mentioned in MCD #1059, the environment remains favorable for supercells, and specifically large hail, given steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and westerly deep effective shear of 60-70 kt via the MAF & LBB VAD profilers. ...Rio Grande Valley... A convective line has recently crossed the border into Maverick County TX, with a 42 gust reported at Eagle Pass. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1060, the downstream environment remains favorable for maintenance with very unstable and undisturbed air mass remains in place. Severe wind gusts near 60-80 mph and marginally severe hail are possible with this developing MCS through the later this evening. ...Central Texas Early Wednesday... There is some potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Texas early Wednesday morning as a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum moves into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear could support occasionally large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier.. 05/29/2024 $$