Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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412 FXUS63 KEAX 250533 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms are possible this afternoon into evening. A strong storm or two are possible through the early evening hours with hail and gusty winds being the main threats. - Drier conditions are expected Wednesday into daylight hours on Thursday. - Cut off upper level low will bring wrap around moisture into the region this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Interesting weather pattern setting up across the central US with an amplified ridge across the western US and deepening trough across the central US as strong upper level jet streak dives south on the backside of the trough. Short wave across western Iowa is expected to continue to shift south through the late afternoon/evening. Weakly unstable atmosphere ahead of the short wave with ML CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg could be enough to support a few isolated to scattered storms through the late afternoon into the evening hours. Instability is mainly a response from steep lapse rates from the near surface layer to 650 mb. The low topped convection will have minimal amounts of speed shear, but cyclonic curvature may be enough to lead to a strong storm or two through the evening hours with gusty winds or small hail being the main threats. This activity should shift south through the evening hours and weaken after sunset. Drier conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday as upper ridge tries to expand east; however, the deepening trough across the Central US becomes cutoff from the flow and lingers across the Mississippi Valley. The remnants of Helene becomes wrapped up in the trough across the central US this weekend bringing additional moisture into the system and additional chances for precipitation wrapping back into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to remain for a few hours after midnight. Fog is expected to reduce visibilities early this morning for KSTJ and other more northern areas of the CWA. There is a potential for some patchy areas of fog for the other terminals, however, at this time confidence is low in placement and coverage so fog has been left out of the KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD TAFs. Fog across the area is expected to dissipate around late morning and skies will be clear with light northerly winds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Collier