295
FXUS63 KEAX 241140
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures expected through the week

- Rain chances return going into the weekend with tropical
  system emerging from the Gulf

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A stratus deck over eastern portions of the CWA continues to shift
to east as clearing takes place on the backend. A surface high to
the south has helped to set the stage for radiational cooling to
take place aiding in the development of patchy areas of fog.
Coverage has been mainly limited to the northwestern parts of our
region. At this time, the fog is expected to stick around through
the morning hours.

Later today, a mid-level trough is expected to descend from the
Dakotas moving through the area resulting in increased cloud
coverage and a chance for some light rain showers this afternoon.
Increased cloud coverage will help to keep us away from any serious
temperatures swings. Highs across the area for today are anticipated
to stay in the low to mid 70s across the area.

Tomorrow the aforementioned mid-level trough is expected to settle
in northeast AR and transition to a stagnant cut off low over the
AR/LA/MS border. At the surface, the high gradually shifts to the
northeast. As a result, expect tomorrow to be a pleasant, partly
cloudy day with an occasional light breeze and highs in the mid 70s.

For the second half of the week, a tropical system moves through the
eastern side of the Gulf and merges with the stagnant cut off low.
This tropical system is expected to bring a sizable amount of
moisture making extensive cloud coverage and widespread showers
possible through the weekend. There may be a few chances for some
isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly for the eastern portions
of the CWA. Guidance suggests a decently sheared environment,
however instability is primarily non-existent. If thunderstorms are
able to develop, there may be a chance for a few efficient rain-
producing storms with PWATs hovering around an inch and a half.
Flooding concerns remain minimal at this time due to uncertainty in
the track of the tropical system.

Transitioning to this weekend, the low gradually shifts to the
northeast keeping rain chances alive through the weekend. The low
continues to shift to the northeast into the Ohio River Valley. Its
slow progress could result in more cloudy days with a chance for a
few sprinkles for the start of next week. Temperatures are expected
to stay near seasonal norms (in the 70s) across the area through the
first half of next week. Increased cloud cover from the stagnant
low/tropical system will help to regulate temperatures. Broad
ridging starts to build into the area sometime next Tuesday possibly
resulting in quiet weather conditions for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Conditions currently ranging between LIFR and VFR across the
terminals. LIFR visibilities are impacting KIXD and KSTJ due to fog
while KMCI and KMKC remain mostly clear. Fog for KIXD and KSTJ is
expected to last until around 15Z. A round of light showers is
possible this evening with weak winds out of the west through
the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ043-053.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier