579
FXUS66 KEKA 261201
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
501 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above normal temperatures are forecast
to return in the interior Friday through this weekend. Hotter
weather conditions will likely arrive early next week. Coastal
areas are forecast to have occasional low clouds through this
weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Surface high pressure will fill back in after the
passing of the trough. Interior temperatures will recover to
around seasonal averages (85-91) today as 500mb heights and 850mb
temps increase slightly. A deeper humid layer has rejuvenated
stratus and patchy fog along the coast and coastal river valleys.
The low clouds will likely scour out with daytime heating and
mixing.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates above normal 500mb
heights and above normal 850mb temperatures returning Friday.
Above normal interior temperature will most likely return Friday
and remain above normal through the weekend. In fact, latest NBM
guidance indicates 100F likely (70% chance) for southern Mendo
(KUKI) on Friday. Widespread highs in the lower to mid 90s are
probable elsewhere for the interior. Heat risk will increase to
moderate levels on Friday in the interior valleys. A weak trough
will probably knock temperatures down some over the weekend in
the interior, but it will still remain warm and above normal.
Northerlies and steady influx of cool-damp marine air will
probably result in night and morning stratus for the North
Coast through this weekend. NBM indicates clear skies while
NAM12 BUFKIT shows favorable thermodynamic profiles for stratus
generation.

Ridge will amplify early next week leading to another round of
hot weather in the interior valleys. Offshore flow may propel high
temperatures into the lower to mid 70s along the coast Mon or Tue
next week. Unlike the last offshore event, this one will lack
deep layer easterlies and marine air may hinder the warming for
coastal areas. For inland areas, anomalous warming is much more
probable. Significant rain (a tenth of an inch) remains highly
unlikely for the next 7 days. DB

&&

AVIATION: A deep marine layer (exceeding 4K feet) has promoted LIFR
stratus at both coastal terminals overnight. Coverage is consistent
along the coast north of Cape Mendocino, but a bit disorganized
offshore. It is possible that UKI may see scattered ceilings this
morning as a light southerly flow advects low level stratus into
the Russian River valley. Light northerlies will continue through
late afternoon as unseasonably warm temperatures as diurnal winds
scour out the fog - ACV may lag behind CEC in this regard. Hi-res
models indicate scattered ceilings will be unable to completely
clear before returning this evening. However, the signal for low
cloud cover is more ill-defined for Friday morning as broad
ridging builds into the region for this weekend.


&&

.MARINE...Northerlies around 20-25 kt and steep wind waves around
8 ft will warrant issuance of a small craft advisory for the
southern outer waters through Fri. Northerlies will strengthen
north of Cape Mendo on Friday with potential for gale force gusts
and large steep waves over 10 feet - mostly over the outer waters.
Elevated northerly winds and large steep seas over 10 ft are
forecast to continue into the weekend. Highest seas are forecast
outside 20NM. DB/JM


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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