Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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589 FXUS64 KEPZ 262308 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 508 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue through the period with near record highs possible on Friday. No rainfall is expected for at least the next week. Winds will be on the light side with just some breezy conditions possible early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Not much change to the forecast. Highly amplified upper ridge will gradually become more west to east oriented through the period, but temperatures will remain above normal and no precip on the horizon. Tomorrow still looks like the hottest day with H85 temps warming up to around 30-32C across the region. This will lead to record or near record high temperatures for many areas. The record for El Paso is 98 and it looks like that will at least be tied. Most of the lowland areas will be in the 95-98 degree range. A weak push of cooler air comes for the weekend with highs dropping 3 to 6 degrees by Sunday across the Borderland. Models have backed off on bringing northern US trough into the area for Tue and just have some increased easterly winds while trough stays further north and east. Another weak trough passes to our north Wed and may drop temps a couple degrees, but no matter what model or ensemble mean you look at, temperatures do not get back to normal which by the end of the period is around 83 degrees at KELP. Dry air does remain in place and with generally light winds, overnight lows will be falling into the 50s and 60s for the lowlands and mid 30s to mid 50s in the mountains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions with light winds throughout the period expected. KTCS will see some drainage winds from the NW overnight, but overall the winds will be variable at most locations during this next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Hot and dry conditions through the period will continue. Min RH`s will generally be in the teens with a few 20s far east and mountains. Winds will remain easterly through the period and generally be under 15 mph, but low end breezy conditions are possible Tuesday. Vent rates will be good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 98 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 90 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 62 97 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 96 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 72 51 68 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 64 95 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 91 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 60 97 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 62 97 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 96 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 59 96 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 98 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 62 90 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 97 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 94 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 96 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 57 96 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 59 98 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 96 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 94 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 84 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 52 85 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 52 83 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 53 88 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 60 95 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 59 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 90 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 57 93 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 97 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 47 92 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 92 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 60 97 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 60 95 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 95 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 91 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...01-Barham