801
FXUS64 KEWX 250613
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The stalled frontal boundary positioned over the region will re-
activate with isolated to scattered convection from later this
afternoon through this evening across primarily the eastern 2/3rds
of the CWA. The combination of pooling instability with daytime
highs peaking in the 90s combined with increased bulk shear to
around 30-35 knots may be just enough to yield a stronger cell or
two with potential of gusts of 40+ mph, small hail, and locally
heavy downpours. Activity should wane towards and beyond the
midnight hour. Overnight lows remain on the milder side through
tonight ranging from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the
low to mid 70s elsewhere.

An upper level low pressure system moving across the Midwest into
the Tennessee valley helps to steer Tropical Storm Helene toward
Florida but will also propel a second cold front across South-
Central Texas through Wednesday morning. This will help to focus
rain chances towards the CRP CWA and into the far eastern coastal
plains on Wednesday. The rest of the region looks to remain rain
free with the arrival of drier air with moderate to breezy north
winds in wake of the front. Gusts of 25+ mph could be possible
Wednesday afternoon. Daytime highs trend in the 80s across the
northern half of the CWA behind the front while 90s still remain
common during Wednesday afternoon across the southern half of the
CWA. Wednesday night will be more refreshing with clearing skies
with the drier post-frontal air. Overnight lows in the 50s are
expected for the Hill Country while 60s trend elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A surface high will settle in over the northern part of the state on
Thursday, setting up a beautiful day across South Central Texas.
Comfortable humidity and plenty of sunshine can be expected along
with highs in the 80s. Tranquil weather will be the norm through the
weekend as we sit under northerly flow aloft. A large, upper level
low will absorb the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene on Friday,
and the upper low will meander over the southeastern CONUS through
the weekend. Our region will be between high pressure to the east and
low pressure to the west, so it`s not out of the realm of possibility
that a surge or two of slightly cooler and drier air can move
southward into our region, but for now, the forecast calls for dry
and seasonable conditions through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Based on the downward PoP trends, there is probably a 5 percent
chance of overnight convection near a TAF VCNTY and no more than a 15
percent chance during the daytime. While the overnight boundary layer
shows a south wind and some decent surface dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s, model initialized winds at 850 mb are north to
northwest, meaning dry air advection is already occurring over the
area. There is still some mid level moisture pooled over North and
Central TX, but the MOS guidance trends suggest isolated impacts if
any. Thus with no convection mentioned, the attention shifts to
prefrontal clouds and/or possible fog. While this is not out of the
question for the I-35 sites, the MOS signals suggest only some lower
Coastal Prairies areas to see this pre-frontal moisture pooling. So
with VFR skies expected through the period, the only focus for the
TAFs going forward is the gusty winds. North winds will begin to
escalate gradually with mixing, so there isn`t much need to track a
FROPA. All sites should shift to northerlies within a couple hours of
each other in the late morning. Some afternoon gusts to 25 KTs are
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  92  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             65  90  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  89  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  90  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           69  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18