Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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581 FXUS64 KEWX 251738 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A few pop-up showers are forming across Central TX overnight, but with well below 10 percent coverage and no remaining surface focus. A more concentrated focus of convection over West Central/North Central TX is located along the next front to arrive, and a distinct frontal boundary can be seen on radar early this morning. Tracking the movement on radar, this front is moving about 15 mph due southward and should still be arriving into our northern CWA just after sunrise. However, the boundary will probably be less traceable once arriving into South Central TX as winds above the boundary layer out of the north ahead of the front will mix down and reduce surface convergence. There will still be some speed convergence in the mixed layer late in the morning, so isolated convection will still be possible, but will be quickly shifting southeast of the escarpment by midday and out of the forecast area by 00Z. The breezy north midday winds will be sufficient enough to trend high temperatures down but mainly just over the northern counties today. More noticeable changes will be expected in the evening with a pleasant north breeze and the dew points falling into the 50s to low 60s. As winds decouple some by Thursday morning, lows should drop to the 60s or lower area-wide, with mainly the Hill Country seeing the lows in the mid/upper 50s. The persistence of north winds at the surface and aloft should be good for a drop of high temperatures back to seasonal values for late September, or mainly in the mid 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A mid and upper level low combined with the remnants of `Helene` will remain anchored over the southeastern U.S. into the middle Mississippi River valley through the end of the week. On the backside of this low, north to northwest flow remains intact on Friday with the medium range models showing a weak upper disturbance dropping southward into the region into the upcoming weekend. While these disturbances would normally be monitored for rain chances, with a dry air mass in place, we do not expect any chance for rain through the upcoming weekend. As these disturbances roll through, a reinforcing shot of northerly winds in the lower levels is anticipated Friday, with perhaps another weak surge late Saturday into early Sunday. With dry air in the low-levels and clear skies, overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 50s over the Hill Country, with lower to mid 60s elsewhere. Daytime highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s, with the warmest temperatures out west along the Rio Grande. For the early portion of next week, the mid and upper level ridge axis begins to build eastward into the southern U.S. plains. Temperatures may warm slightly on Monday, with models showing a surge of cooler air possibly moving into the region on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The primary concern is wind speeds in this TAF period, but overall, expect rather benign weather through the next 24-30 hours. Northwesterly winds should remain about 10-15 kts with perhaps some gusts up to 20-25 kts through the afternoon. By 01-02Z, we should see slightly more northeasterly winds near 10 kts with breezy conditions remaining through the period. VFR ceilings are expected with unrestricted visibilities. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 92 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 65 90 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 89 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 88 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 92 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...MMM