Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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006 FXUS64 KEWX 231930 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An upper level trough in the middle of the country has pushed the subtropical ridge to the south and the 500mb flow is from the west- southwest. A surface cold front has made it into our northern area and is stretched from Temple to Rocksprings to the Big Bend. Temperatures behind the front are in the 60s and 70s while on the warm side they are in the 80s and 90s. The front seems to have lost momentum, and we expect it to stall near where it currently is. It is not producing much lift with only isolated showers in the vicinity. The upper trough will push a little farther south tonight adding better lift near the surface boundary. This will bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms starting after midnight. Better rain chances will progress from north to south through the night and tomorrow. The better chances will be over the eastern half of the area where there will be deeper moisture. The upper trough will dig farther southeast Tuesday night and there will be lingering low chances for rain across our CWA. Temperatures will be divided by the front with cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the south. Time-wise there won`t be much change. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today and lows both nights will be around the same. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Lingering showers behind a southward advancing cold front can be expected through the day Wednesday. Per the latest 12Z run of the NBM and NAM12km, the frontal boundary should be through all of South Central Texas by 18Z Wednesday. Surface high pressure is expected to settle into Central Texas on Thursday, setting up a couple of much nicer days in the area. Highs will still be near normal, but humidity will be much lower and more comfortable. As it stands, it doesn`t appear as if dewpoints above 65 will be returning anytime soon. Despite lower dewpoints, that will allow the atmosphere to mix out quicker each day, resulting in highs remaining in the upper 80s to around 90 through the weekend into early next week. With this pattern change, expect seasonably mild and dry days through the end of September. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Convection along the Rio Grande near Del Rio continues and we have opted to add a TEMPO group through 15Z with MVFR conditions in -SHRA. By late morning, most of the activity should gradually move north of DRT, so will carry VCSH for now. Elsewhere, we will mention a TEMPO group through mid-morning for MVFR conditions along the I-35 corridor. Confidence in MVFR is a little lower at AUS and the forecast may need to be adjusted pending observations. VFR is expected at all sites this afternoon and evening. Low cloud development is anticipated overnight into Tuesday morning. For now, we will mention MVFR at AUS as some lower cigs may filter in behind a weak cold front. We will mention low clouds in the remainder of our TAF sites, but keep bases VFR for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 93 70 91 / 20 40 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 93 69 92 / 20 40 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 95 71 94 / 10 40 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 69 90 68 87 / 30 30 30 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 95 75 96 / 10 10 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 90 68 89 / 30 30 30 20 Hondo Muni Airport 73 93 71 94 / 10 30 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 93 68 92 / 10 40 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 92 69 90 / 10 30 30 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 93 73 93 / 10 30 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 76 95 74 94 / 10 30 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...05