Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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617 FXUS62 KFFC 210750 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 350 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue through the short term portion of the forecast. Temperatures will remain well above normal through Sunday with values averaging 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Winds will be light and mostly sunny skies with some afternoon cu will be likely. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The upper-level ridge in place over the Southeast and Midwest during the short-term period is progged to dampen Sunday night through Monday night. The upper-level pattern is progged to transition to troughing over the eastern portion of the CONUS Tuesday through Friday, with both the GEFS and EPS generating a weak area of low pressure at the surface across the Ohio River Valley around midweek. On Monday and Tuesday, rain/storm chances/coverage will be relatively low (15% to 25%) and confined to far north Georgia. On Wednesday, a weak cold front is progged to progress southeastward across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, potentially traversing the forecast area over the course of Thursday and Friday. Cloud cover is expected to increase during the latter half of the work week with area-wide rain/storm chances of 15% to 30%. A lack of strong flow aloft, along with cloud cover hindering instability, mean that the potential for widespread severe weather is low. Rainfall totals through the long-term period generally look unimpressive (0.25" to 0.75") in the absence of organized systems (MCSs or squall lines) that would bring efficient rainfall. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate the development of an area of low pressure over the western/central Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Friday. At this time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is indicating a 60% chance for tropical development across this area in the next 7 days. The expansive moisture field associated with this feature could impact rainfall totals mainly across the southernmost portion of the forecast area during the latter half of the work week, so this potential system will bear watching. At this time, advertising rainfall totals up to around 1.0" across the southwestern portion of the forecast area. At 6 to 7 days out and with the system yet to even develop, there is much uncertainty. Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR through the period. Winds will be light through the period. For the next few hours, direction should be mostly easterly with speeds of 4-5kt or less and then go VRB for the early morning hours. Once mixing begins, wind speeds should remain light but the direction should mostly be on the SW side. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 90 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 91 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 10 0 Cartersville 93 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 92 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 89 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 90 68 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 93 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 91 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 88 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...NListemaa