642
FXUS63 KFGF 281709
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain expected Thursday across the region with the probability
  of more than 0.50" around 30% in the northern valley
  increasing to 60% for the southern valley. Probs for an 1" or
  more are less than 10% north and around 20% in the south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Webcams and surface observations have shown a little light rain
around Thief River Falls. The Mayville radar doesn`t show too
much in that spot, but is showing a few other echoes now
northwest of Wadena. Went ahead and matched up with NWS Duluth
and added isolated showers through the afternoon along and east
of the Red River Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 953 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The models did a pretty good job nailing the MVFR (low clouds)
conditions that have moved into areas along and north of highway
2 this morning. To the south of highway 2, the morning sun,
shortwave, and cold temperatures aloft have led to fairly rapid
cumulus development. So with southern areas clouding up too,
most of the FA will stay mainly cloudy throughout most of the
day, but there could be some decreasing clouds throughout the
afternoon (mainly to the west of the Red River Valley). There is
some upstream shower activity across southern Ontario, but this
should mainly drop into the Minnesota arrowhead through the
afternoon. The afternoon forecast in our area should be
precipitation free, unless a few showers happen to pop up over
portions of our Minnesota FA.

UPDATE
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A few lingering showers are pushing southeast this morning in
the Fosston and Park Rapids and Wahpeton areas. This activity
will clear the FA over the next couple hours. In its wake a
period of clear skies will give way to a deck of stratus clouds
which will impact the days temps along with a north wind.
Forecast accounts for all this and will adjust to match the
current trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Overall forecast remains similar to much of the month of May
with several chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast over the next 7 days. Below normal temp regime is
expected to gradually warm to closer to normal values as we
move into June this weekend with highs climbing into the 70s.

Model ensembles remain in good agreement with the forecast for
much of the week and into the weekend. Another couple days of
below normal temps, especially today as highs struggle under
mostly cloudy skies and northerly winds with temps in the upper
50s and low 60s. SFC high pressure will track across the area
tonight with skies clearing and winds lightening temps will cool
efficiently with the favorable radiative cooling environment.
With another night of lows around 40, cooler in the typically
cold spots in NW MN where winds will be the weakest for much of
the night. Probability of temps less than 36 were less than 2%
so will refrain from any frost headlines.

Wednesday will see upper level ridging initiate a south wind
and warmer temps return to the area before the next round of
rain comes into the area for Thursday and at least the first
part of Friday. Southwesterly flow aloft combined with a few
hundred joules of ML cape will bring a band of showers with
embedded thunder across the area during the day Thursday, which
may linger across portions of MN zones into Friday morning. PoPs
currently around 90% with this feature as its a high confidence
of occurrence. As stated in the key messages, the probability
of more than 0.50" is around 30% in the northern valley
increasing to 60% for the southern valley. Probs for an 1" or
more are less than 10% north and around 20% in the south.

With the SW flow continuing there remains multiple episodes of
PoPs. Ensemble guidance depicts much higher spread in a second
wave Friday night into Saturday lowering pops to 20 to 30% of
occurrence. Slightly higher chances with another wave at the end
of the weekend and into next week with PoPs at 40 to 50% for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The main aviation impact will be within the first 6 hours, and
it is due to the MVFR ceilings out there. Really only expect
another 1 to 2 hours of these ceilings of BKN-OVC025-030 until
they rise above 3000 feet. The steady north-northwest winds will
quickly decrease this evening, then turn around to the S-SE
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the cumulus out there now will
begin to thin by late afternoon, before clearing out in the
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...Godon