533
FXUS63 KFGF 292358
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues through the next week. Showers and
  thunderstorms are expected Thursday and again on Saturday.

- A few strong storms are possible Sunday as another system
  traverses the region during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Skies are clear, but ideal mixing has resulted in winds gusting
a bit higher than originally forecast (35-38 mph) but as the sun
starts to set we should see gusts decrease or drop for most
locations (sustained winds will still remain breezy overnight).
The general forecast is on track, so only adjustments were to
near term trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

There is relatively high confidence regarding an active weather
pattern unfolding over the next week. Rain chances increase on
Thursday as an upper low ushers a trough across the Northern Plains.
This trough is an extension of a larger upper low, which will serve
as the source multiple thunderstorm axes through the next week. This
first trough will have enough moisture to give us a 70 percent
chance of 0.50 inch of rain across portions of the region,
especially along the I-94 corridor in southeastern North Dakota and
west central Minnesota. Look for mainly embedded thunderstorms with
this first system.

Heading into Friday and Saturday, a weak shortwave rotates around
the H5 low, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the
area. Minimal impact is expected from this shortwave, with less than
a 20 percent chance for 0.10 inch of rain for the Devils Lake Basin.

Sunday brings a stronger trough and associated theta-e gradient
boundary. Slightly better forcing and moisture will be available
with this wave, thus we could see a few strong storms develop during
the afternoon and evening. Regarding SBCAPE, there is a 70 percent
chance for greater than 1000 J/Kg and a 50 percent chance for 2000
J/Kg or more, especially in the far southern Red River Valley.
Surface to 3km shear could range from 20 to 30 knots, with deep
layer shear up to 40 knots. Although it`s still several days out,
there is enough ensemble agreement to mention a low chance for
severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

The active pattern continues into next week, with thunderstorm
chances entering the forecast again as we head into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this evening into the
overnight period across eastern ND and northwest MN. South-
southeast winds remain gusty though, and as a 40-50kt low level
jet moves across the region this evening/overnight low level
wind shear should be expected. A cold front associated with a
large low pressure system will bring increasing rain chances
along with MVFR (low chance IFR) ceilings west to east Wednesday
morning through the early evening. Best chance for lighting
activity/thunderstorms is in southeast ND midday Wednesday, though
they can`t be ruled out elsewhere. Behind the front winds shift
to the southwest then west at KDVL and gradually decrease.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR