703
FXUS63 KFGF 270423
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1123 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds to 45 mph in portions of eastern North Dakota
  into the Red River Valley may bring minor wind-related
  impacts this afternoon.

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue through the
  afternoon today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The front is getting closer to the Red River Valley, with south
winds at 5 to 10 mph ahead of it and northwest winds at 5 to 15
mph behind it. There are a few wisps of cirrus over the far
northern Valley, but it remains clear elsewhere. It remains a
very quiet night.

UPDATE
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

South winds remain pretty gusty yet within the Red River Valley,
but they are starting to decrease across the Devils Lake region.
Expect a pretty rapid drop in wind speeds over the next hour or
two, as sunset approaches. The wind switch associated with the
next cold front currently stretches from near Rolla down through
just east of Bismarck. This boundary will slowly track eastward
tonight, although no precipitation or even cloud cover is
associated with it.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...Synopsis...

Large and anomalously strong upper ridging over the Great Plains
into Upper Midwest can be seen on water vapor imagery this
afternoon. A shortwave trough pushing east into the Northern
Plains out of the northern Rockies can also be seen. This
incoming shortwave trough is helping increase surface pressure
gradient across the Dakotas as lee troughing impinges upon
surface high pressure within the Upper Midwest. A warm and very
dry air mass is also overspread across the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. This is driving near critical fire weather
conditions within our area, along with potential minor impacts
from high winds, this afternoon.

Upper ridging is only shunted some with the incoming shortwave
trough moving through our region tonight/tomorrow. Thus,
summer-like warmth will continue into this weekend. Another
period of gusty winds Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front
amid similarly dry and warm air mass may allow for another
period of fire weather conditions. Sunday`s cold front looks to
have a notable air mass change behind it, bringing temperatures
closer to average to perhaps slightly below average. Gusty
winds behind the cold front into Monday can also be anticipated.
Ensemble guidance still indicates a chance for light rain with
this as well.

...Gusty Winds and Fire Weather Conditions This Afternoon...

Winds continue to gust up to the mid 40s mph, with sustained
winds around 30 mph in the northern Red River Valley into
eastern North Dakota mainly north of Hwy 200. For this reason,
the Wind Advisory was extended into portions of eastern North
Dakota. Gusty winds may bring minor impacts in these areas.

These winds along with RH values are already 25-30%. Thus, near
critical fire weather conditions are being realized, with
localized critical fire weather conditions being observed
intermittently.

Winds will being to decrease around sunset near 7 PM. This is also
when RH values begin to increase as temperatures cool for the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

No impacts are expected at any of the TAF sites. The only thing
worth mentioning is that wind speeds will stay much lower over
the next 24 hours (generally less than 10 knots), although
there will be some direction changes.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Godon