Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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426 FXUS63 KFGF 201856 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 156 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for hazardous weather impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...Synopsis... As the surface high translates east overnight tonight, a shortwave/cold front will begin to push through the area after midnight. Showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, may cause some minor impacts, however given very limited instability impacts will be limited. Once showers exit as the front passes through Saturday morning, winds will increase from the west. Mixing potential is solid but winds aloft aren`t particularly strong (850 winds around 40-50 knots at best), so wind advisory potential appears fairly low at this time (20% chance). Having said that, gusts to 40 mph can at least be expected tomorrow. The remainder of the period will feature low probabilities for hazardous weather as the upper flow pattern keeps the majority of deeper moisture tagged to the Gulf. Heights based on ensembles are pretty stable so expect at least some recovery after cooler temperatures tomorrow but mostly seasonal temperatures through at least Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period. Winds will increase as a front moves through the area overnight after 06z. Showers may accompany this activity but confidence is too low to add SHRA to the TAF at this time. Once the front exits the area, ceilings will rise with winds increasing from the west. Wind gusts towards the end of the TAF period are likely to exceed 25 knots, peaking after the TAF period in the afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...Perroux