Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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806 FXUS63 KFGF 030755 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 255 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Tuesday. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms across the far eastern FA Tuesday afternoon, with the main hazards being hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Gusty winds and scattered showers are anticipated Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...Synopsis... The 700/500mb shortwave that brought the severe weather to portions of the FA yesterday is sliding east of the FA quickly early this morning. Some fog and stratus will linger in the clearing through the early morning hours, mainly along and west of the Red River Valley (but potentially across west central Minnesota as well). There will be a bit of break before the next wave pushes from west to east across the FA late tonight into Tuesday. Elongated low pressure will then set up just north and northeast of the FA from Wednesday into Thursday, which will set the stage for gusty winds and scattered showers (more so during the late morning through afternoon hours). ...Late Monday night into Tuesday... A steady consistent signal remains for the next shortwave during this period. As mentioned at this time yesterday, and it continues now, the probabilities for the higher amounts of precipitation with this wave look better across the northern half of the FA. However, even the southern half should see precipitation. The NBM shows a 90 percent probability for rainfall amounts greater than 0.25 inches along the Canadian border to about a 60 percent probability along the Dakotas border (in this FA). As amounts go up to 1 inch or more, the probabilities drop to about 50 percent for the Devils Lake region and northern Red River Valley, to less than 10 percent along the Dakotas border. SPC has backed up the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms into our far eastern FA Tuesday afternoon, barely brushing a Baudette to Bemidji to Staples line. This is a highly conditional threat, all depending on the frontal timing and whether any instability can develop across this area by the afternoon. The 00z CAMs may be a bit slower on the timing of the front, but it appears there will be a lot of clouds and potentially morning showers/weaker storms even across this area, limiting the amount of instability that could develop in the afternoon. One HREF member shows a few UH tracks possible over our far eastern FA during the afternoon, but most members are east of the FA, closer to Duluth. ...Wednesday into Thursday... The 700/500mb low stacks across southern Manitoba during this period, potentially extending all the way into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and gusty winds are possible both days, but mainly during the late morning through afternoon hours. With cold temperatures aloft, any morning sun should result in fairly quick late morning cumulus development. Not anticipating widespread rainfall, but much more showery/spotty with lower end amounts (high probabilities for less than 0.10 inches). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Showers may affect KBJI for another couple of hours, but the thunder threat has ended. Have seen a few higher gusts around KFAR, but that has passed as well. So will see decreasing high clouds from west to east, which will be replaced by clearing and light winds. With the recent rain, this will set the stage for fog and possibly stratus for late tonight into early Monday morning. Pretty hard to nail down exact visibilities and whether the stratus will be SCT or BKN, so will adjust as need be. Winds look to remain pretty light all day Monday. Models are also showing cumulus developing with morning heating. Have kept this VFR for now, but it could start a little sooner and be MVFR initially. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026-027-054. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon