Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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490 FXUS65 KFGZ 260043 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 543 PM MST Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure over Arizona will continue the unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Today and Thursday...A weak shortwave moves northward through Arizona today, brining a return of southerly flow. Moisture does increase some through the day, but with high pressure still largely in control, the only noticeable change will be some increase cloud cover over the higher terrain this afternoon. Similar story again on Thursday, though just a touch more moisture. Though this should largely be a nominal increase as subsidence aloft will suppress any precipitation chances. Afternoon highs each day will be nearly 10 degrees F above normal for this time of year. Winds should be fairly light each day with occasional afternoon breezes. Some gusty northeast winds overnight will remain possible, mainly in the usual areas immediately downwind of southwest-facing terrain. Friday through Tuesday...High pressure continue sot wobble around the southwest, eventually centering over Arizona and becoming amplified. As heights become maximized, afternoon highs sore to nearly 15 degrees F above normal for Friday and into the weekend. The lowest elevations of the region (mainly near Black Canyon City) will be flirting with near 110 deg F both Friday and Saturday. By the start of next week, the ridge axis becomes elongated across the west. Temperatures begin to cool slightly as it becomes degraded some, but still remain well above normal. Continued dry conditions are also expected, with only a handful out of 100 ensemble members between the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE showing any chance for precipitation through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...Thursday 26/00Z through Friday 27/00Z...VFR conditions persist through the period with FEW cumulus clouds over the high terrain. FU may locally limit visibility. Expect variable winds under 10 kts. OUTLOOK...Friday 27/00Z through Sunday 29/00Z...VFR conditions continue through Saturday with variable cloud cover. Winds will remain light, 5-15 kts, from the east to southwest each afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...The dry and warm weather pattern continues across Arizona to end the week. Expect near record, daytime temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above average each day with afternoon humidity of 10 to 20%. Light winds, 5 to 15 mph, are forecast throughout the period, mainly from the south or east. Saturday through Monday...No precipitation is forecast through Monday with afternoon humidity of 10 to 20% each day. High temperatures remain significantly above average for this time of year with cool temperatures at night. Light southwest winds return for this weekend, becoming northeast on Monday. For any prescribed burns, plan on poor smoke ventilation conditions after 7 pm MST each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff