Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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013 FXUS65 KFGZ 212034 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 134 PM MST Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system crossing through Arizona will bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon. Warmer and drier weather is expected to return for much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped this afternoon in the core of the upper low nearing northeastern Arizona. The remaining instability is positioned north of the Mogollon Rim and this is where storms will continue through the afternoon hours. Storm motion is northwest to southeast. As is expected with convection, rainfall amounts have been variable and generally less than 0.50". An isolated strong storm could produce hail and strong winds, but the better environmental wind shear lies closest to the New Mexico border. Showers will come to an end this evening when drier air filters in as the low pushes further east into New Mexico and Colorado. Temperatures will be cool tonight, but dew point remain elevated enough to keep temps from dropping too cold. A few outlying high mountain valley will likely hit freezing but elsewhere looks to stay above. A dry and quiet weather pattern is in store beginning tomorrow and lasting through the upcoming week. Strong Pacific high pressure will build over the west, bringing a much warmer period of weather with light winds. The strength and amplification of the ridge looks to keep any shortwave activity much further east than previously forecast, which will continue the warm and dry pattern for us. Expect temperatures to climb back above normal through the week, perhaps nearing 80 degrees in the mountains and upper 90s in the lowest valleys by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...Saturday 21/18Z through Sunday 22/18Z...Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA with localized/brief MVFR conditions spreading eastward through the day. Precipitation chances will come to an end area wide by around 00Z. West to northwest winds 10-20 kts this afternoon turning light overnight. OUTLOOK...Sunday 22/18Z through Tuesday 24/18Z...Dry weather and VFR conditions are forecast. Variable winds mostly 10 kts or less for Sunday through Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Look for warm and dry conditions both days. Expect northerly winds at 5 to 15 mph on Sunday becoming light and variable at less the 10 mph for Monday. Afternoon RH values ranging from 15 to 25 percent. Tuesday through Thursday...Warm days and dry conditions will continue. Northerly winds at 10-20 mph are expected to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday becoming light and variable on Thursday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff