Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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872 FXUS65 KFGZ 260524 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 950 PM MST Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity then slowly decreases and becomes more focused over eastern Arizona by the weekend. && .UPDATE...Persistent light showers, and a few isolated thunderstorms, remain across much of Yavapai County and portions of northern Navajo County this evening. Expect light stratiform rain to continue through much of the evening/overnight hours, with another round of active weather returning tomorrow afternoon. Only minor updates were made to the forecast tonight. Overall, everything remains largely on track, so check out the previous discussion for more details. && .PREV DISCUSSION /415 PM MST/...The remnants of a well-defined MCV is lurking in the Phoenix area this afternoon, with plenty of action in our CWA. This feature is progged to move into Yavapai County this evening, on a northwesterly track. This could potentially prolong convection later into the night. These features don`t always pan out, especially if moving into a worked-over airmass, but we will need to keep an eye on it. Our ridge starts to get slightly suppressed and pushed southeastward on Wednesday, in advance of an approaching, long-wave trough to our north. This will not be enough to stop another active day, but you may see activity starting to slide eastward, just a bit. From Thursday through Saturday, the northern trough brings much drier mid-level air to our area and the Monsoon moisture boundary will be forced into southeastern Arizona. This will limit activity to southern Apache County, for the most part. Moisture may return heading into next week, but perhaps not as aggressive as what we have seen for the last week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 26/06Z through Thursday 27/06Z...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, minus brief MVFR conditions in SHRA/TSRA. Mostly -SHRA is expected through 18Z, with stronger storms forecast for Wednesday afternoon. Gusty/erratic outflow winds will be possible with generally SW winds 5-15 kts otherwise. OUTLOOK...Thursday 27/06Z through Saturday 29/06Z...Look for mostly VFR conditions with periods of MVFR conditions from heavy TSRA/SHRA. Chances for showers/thunderstorms likely on Thursday before drier conditions return over the weekend. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storm development, with SW winds 10-20 kts expected otherwise. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. On Thursday, the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim northeast and eastward. Winds on Wednesday will mainly be driven by outflows. By Thursday, expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, especially for the central and western zones. Friday through Sunday...Most of the central and western zones become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/Peterson AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff