639
FXUS65 KFGZ 251736
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1036 AM MST Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably
warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...A weak shortwave moves northward through Arizona today,
brining a return of southerly flow. Moisture does increase some
through the day, but with high pressure still largely in control,
the only noticeable change will be some increase cloud cover over
the higher terrain this afternoon.

No major changes needed this morning. Previous discussion
continues below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /416 AM MST/...High pressure remains the main
weather story for the rest of the week. The high is centered over
the Four Corners region early this morning. Another day of warm
temperatures is expected with highs around 5 to 10 degrees above
the seasonal averages. Models have keyed on a weak shortwave
rotating through the mid levels this morning. While this may
increase moisture ever so slightly, it still looks like we will be
too dry to see any rainfall as it cross the region. However, this
may result in a few more clouds around through the day.

Over the next day or two, the high will start to slide to the south
and a little to the east becoming centered over New Mexico, before
sliding west and centering over Arizona by Friday. Expect
temperatures to remain well above normal with highs 10-15 degrees
above the seasonal averages. Some slight cooling is expected by the
weekend as the high begins to shift a bit to the north. However, the
warm and dry conditions look to continue into next week. Winds may
increase early next week as trough pushes into California but it
makes little progress towards our area due to the strength of the
high in place.

With the unseasonably warm temperatures across the region, many
places may near or break records over the next several days. Enjoy
the late summer-like temperatures while they last because winter
will be here before we know it!

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 25/18Z through Thursday 26/18Z...Widespread
VFR conditions persist through the period with FEW cumulus clouds
along the high terrain. Expect southerly winds, 10-20 kts, this
afternoon, becoming variable under 10 kts after 01Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 26/18Z through Saturday 28/18Z...VFR conditions
continue through Saturday with variable cloud cover. Winds will
remain light, 5-15 kts, from the east to southwest each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...High temperatures, 10 to 15
degrees above average, will continue today and Thursday. Expect
minimum RH values to remain between 10 to 25% both afternoons, and
winds generally out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Afternoon temperatures, 10 to 15 degrees
above average, will continue through the weekend, along with mostly
dry conditions. Variable winds 5 to 15 mph forecast for Friday and
Saturday, becoming west-southwest on Sunday. Minimum RH values 10 to
20% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/Meola
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff