496
FXUS65 KFGZ 261109
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
409 AM MST Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will
continue to be the main story with high pressure dominating the
Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave looks to pass along the U.S./Canada
border today, but shouldn`t bring any impacts to Arizona due to
the impressive ridge that has settle across the Southwest. This
area of high pressure will wobble around day-to-day, but
ultimately our story won`t alter much. Expect daytime highs to
ring in 8-16 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Outside of seasonably warm temperatures, expect mostly light
winds and dry conditions to remain in place. Smoke/haze will also
stick around the Flagstaff area from nearby fires. If you wake up
to smokey conditions, be patient as the inversion breaks by the
early afternoon allowing smoke to rise further aloft.

There may be slight relief by the middle of next week. The
previously mentioned upper-level ridge looks to weaken, but still
remain in place over Arizona. As a result, daytime highs should
inch back closer to average temperatures for this time of year.
Still might not completely feel like fall, but that`s the likely
potential relief in sight at the moment.

Beyond our extended forecast...The ECMWF model does show a large
trough sweeping in from off the Pacific Northwest Coast by the
first weekend in October. Take this with a grain of salt
though...this is the only model currently hinting at this
solution. Normally, something this far out wouldn`t be worth
mentioning due to the large uncertainty, but the forecast is
pretty quiet so why not take a look beyond our 7-days.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 26/12Z through Friday 27/12Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the TAF period, with brief reduced
visibilities from HZ/FU near the KFLG and KSEZ terminals. Winds
will be 5-15 kts varying in direction.

OUTLOOK...Friday 27/12Z through Sunday 29/12Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the outlook period, with brief reduced
visibilities from HZ/FU near the KFLG and KSEZ terminals. Winds
will be 5-15 kts varying in direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Temperatures 8-16 degrees above
normal will continue each afternoon. Winds will vary in direction
each day generally 5-15 mph. Expect minimum RH values to be 25% or
less.

Saturday through Monday...Look for afternoon temperatures to remain
well above normal through the weekend and into next week. Winds will
generally be out of the south along and south of the Mogollon Rim
Saturday and Sunday at 10-20 mph. Areas north of the Rim will see
light and variable winds. Winds varying in direction 5-15 mph
return on Monday. Minimum RH values will remain between 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff