042
FXUS65 KFGZ 191653
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
953 AM MST Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend
with a slight cool down next week. Look for gusty afternoon winds
each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry weather
disturbance.

&&

.UPDATE...Another warm and dry day is underway across northern
Arizona. Expecting breezes similar to yesterday afternoon with
gusts in the 25-35 mph range along with sunny skies. A much
windier day is still expected on Monday, and we will be looking at
upgrading our Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and also
issuing a Wind Advisory for much of northern AZ with the afternoon
package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /349 AM MST/...Similar to recent mornings clear
skies were being observed across Arizona during the early morning.
For today, a drying southwest flow will set up across northern
Arizona as a longwave trough develops over the western states. As
a result, look for warm daytime temperatures to continue with
another round of afternoon sustained winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range gusting to around 35 mph. It will remain dry.

On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger shortwave disturbance will
rotate through the western states longwave pattern producing even
stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting
into the 45 to 55 mph range, especially from the Mogollon Rim
northward Monday afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a
heightened fire weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine
for an environment conducive to rapid fire spread. A Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for portions of northern Arizona on Monday.
Later on Monday into Tuesday there will be enough moisture
combined with dynamic lift and cooling aloft for a slight chance
of high based showers. The northern border and Four Corners could
see a stray shower. In addition, a nose of moisture will attempt
to sneak over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains area for slight
chances for showers in those locations as well. Lighter winds are
forecast for Tuesday as the short-wave moves eastward. High
temperatures will cool some by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to
Sunday.

From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue
to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest
breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-based
showers along the Arizona/Utah border.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 19/12Z through Monday 20/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds SW 10-20 kts, gusting to 20-30 kts before 03Z, then
subsiding to around 5-10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 20/12Z through Wednesday 22/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds SW 20-30 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Monday, locally higher
gusts up to 50 kts downwind of the high terrain. Winds becoming
W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday..Cooler and dry conditions, with
critical fire weather conditions possible on Monday. Southwest winds
15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph today, increasing to 25-35 mph with
gusts 35-50 mph on Monday. Afternoon minimum RH 5-15%, with
overnight recoveries 30-60%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Continued dry conditions with near-normal
temperatures. West winds 10-20 mph on Tuesday, becoming southwest on
Wednesday. Winds increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH 5-
15% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ107>110-112>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff