021
FXUS65 KFGZ 020528
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1028 PM MST Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dry weather pattern will continue over Arizona
through the weekend and most of the coming week. Expect
temperatures to warm to the hottest yet this season by Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...Quiet weather is expected for tonight across northern
Arizona with near average temperatures and little to no wind.
Lingering smoke/haze is possible overnight east of Prescott due to
the Burro prescribed burn that took place this afternoon.

Dry and warm conditions persist on Sunday with scattered high
clouds and breezy, 15-30 mph, southwest winds during the afternoon
as a weak, upper-level trough pushes through the region from the
west. The warming and drying trend continues through much of this
upcoming week with daytime temperatures becoming 10-15 degrees
above average by the latter half of the week.

The current forecast remains on track with no changes needed at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/...A dry, warm and breezy day is underway
across northern Arizona. Southwesterly winds are gusting 20-30
mph while temperatures are expected to reach just a degree or two
below yesterday`s highs. A weak trough will pass by to our north
through the rest of the weekend keeping breezy afternoon winds in
the forecast. Temperatures will decrease a few degrees on Sunday
in response to the trough passage.

High pressure over the west coast will gradually build in strength
and expand across the Southwest through the upcoming week. Rising
heights and plenty of sunshine with longer daylight hours will
lead to increasing temperatures. Our heat risk guidance is
beginning to indicate some areas reaching major heat risk by
Thursday. This includes the lower Grand Canyon, Page area and
lower elevations of Yavapai county. High temperatures by
Wednesday/Thursday will reach into the upper 80s/low 90s in the
mountains to well into the 100s (100-110F) for the lowest valley
locations.

Meanwhile, a weak cut-off low pressure circulation is forecast to
develop off the coast of the Baja peninsula. Southerly flow in
advance of the trough may bring a brief increase in moisture late
this week or the early part of next weekend. Blended guidance from
the NBM maintains a 10-30% chance for showers or storms by Friday
and Saturday when the trough ejects northeastward across Arizona.
Drier air looks to follow the trough, so it looks like a short
window for any precipitation chances. The bigger impact may be
the possibility of new wildfire starts from lightning strikes.
Temperatures should moderate during this time period due to the
trough passage and an increase in cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 02/06Z through Monday 03/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and in the early
morning hours, otherwise, S-SW10-20g25kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 03/06Z through Wednesday 05/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and in the early
morning hours, otherwise, S-SW10-20g25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday through Monday...Seasonable temperatures and
dry conditions continue. Daily southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with
gusts to 25 mph. Winds becoming light in the overnight and early
morning hours. RH values less than 15 percent each afternoon and
recovering to 25 to 55 percent at night.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures climbing more than 10
degrees above normal by Wednesday and Thursday. Daily southwest
winds 10 to 20 mph. Afternoon RH values staying below 15 percent
with poor overnight recoveries.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/MCT
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff