Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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732 FXUS65 KFGZ 241854 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1154 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions in place through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...High pressure will continue to wobble around the southwest through pretty much the entire forecast period. As a result, dry conditions with well above- normal temperatures are expected to continue. Another night of gusty northeasterly winds is expected downwind of the terrain, which should moderate overnight temperatures in these locations. A weak shortwave undercuts the high over New Mexico and moves northward across Arizona on Wednesday. A slight increase in moisture looks possible, but not really enough to produce any precipitation. Additionally, the increase subsidence from the strengthening high will act to cap any vertical motion. Thus, the only notable change will likely just be a few extra clouds Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Friday through Monday...High pressure then shifts westward slightly, becoming centered and building over Arizona as it remains sandwiched between a trough just off the California Coast and another over the Mississippi River Valley. With the high amplified over Arizona, high temperatures look to be near 10 to 15 degrees F above normal for this time of year to finish out the week. Temperatures look to gradually trend by the start of next week as the high begins to shift once again. However, long-range ensemble guidance continue to keep dry conditions in the forecast. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 24/18Z through Wednesday 25/18Z...VFR conditions with winds E/NE 5-10 kts with occasional gusts 15-20 kts. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 25/18Z through Friday 27/18Z...VFR conditions with S/SE winds around 10 kts on Wednesday, becoming VRB 5-10 kts on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions. South winds 5 to 15 mph, becoming variable on Thursday. Afternoon minimum RH values 15 to 25 percent. Friday through Sunday...Well above-normal temperatures and continued dry conditions. Winds variable 5 to 10 mph on Friday, becoming south over the weekend. Afternoon minimum RH values 10 to 20 percent. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff