Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
210 FXUS64 KFWD 232042 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 342 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 140 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ /Through Tuesday/ A slow-moving cold front is currently draped along a Comanche-Fort worth-Gainesville line but isn`t particularly discernible outside of a weak northwest wind shift and a subtle drop in temperatures and dew points behind the front. Ongoing showers continue to weaken early this afternoon and will gradually diminish over the next couple of hours or so, with a lull in rain chances this evening into the overnight period. Clouds have started to scatter out across our northeast zones, with the rest of the forecast area expected to see some clearing by this evening. The lingering clouds will keep temperatures confined to the mid 70s to low 80s across most of the area, with some spots reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s across Central Texas where less cloud cover is expected through the afternoon. While most of tonight will be quiet and rain-free, another weak shortwave trough will skirt the Southern Plains, providing enough ascent for scattered showers and storms to develop late tonight into early Tuesday morning near the slow-moving front. Have kept PoPs confined to areas south of I-20, and coverage should be far less than what we saw this morning. The shortwave will gently usher the front through the remainder of the forecast area. However, the front will be quite washed out by the time this occurs. As a result, temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 80s areawide tomorrow. Most of the morning showers and storms should dissipate by late morning or midday, but isolated activity may linger across Central Texas through the afternoon. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Over Tuesday evening, a digging shortwave disturbance will eject southward into Missouri from the main longwave trough to our east and eventually amplify into a cut-off low near the Ark-La-Tex by Wednesday morning. The movement of this upper low will allow additional showers and storms to initially form across North Texas, but eventually move south across the region midweek. Severe weather is not expected with any midweek activity. A short lull in precipitation is expected on Thursday as North and Central Texas become situated on the subsident back-side of the eastward- moving low. Temperatures over mid-late week will remain relatively seasonal, if not slightly-below normal as we get an influx of low-level CAA on the backside of the aforementioned low. Morning lows in the 50s/60s and afternoon highs in the 80s are expected each day through late week/early weekend. Low rain chances will return to our eastern North Texas counties on Friday as the cut-off low shifts back westward in response to the landfall and movement of PTC 9 late Thursday into Friday. As PTC 9 makes landfall in Florida, model guidance continues to show both lows moving in tandem around a shared center, with a slight westward retrograde of the larger cut-off low. The reason behind this "retrograde" is the potential for the Fujiwhara Effect to occur atop the SE CONUS. The Fujiwhara Effect is when two cyclones move close enough to each other that they begin to rotate around a shared center point. Eventually, PTC 9 will be snuffed out while the Ark-La-Tex cut-off low remains through the end of the week, keeping low rain chances present for our east and northeastern zones into Saturday morning. Eventually, the cut-off low will exit the region late next weekend and become enveloped within the flow of another NW-SE moving upper level trough. In response, mid-level ridging will build in across North and Central Texas. Temperatures will gradually warm, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s by next Monday. Prater && .AVIATION... /Issued 140 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Lingering IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to lift to VFR over the next few hours, with low clouds scattering out by this evening. Areas of rain continue south and east of D10 airspace, but this activity should gradually diminish over the next couple of hours or so. Winds have finally shifted out of the northwest at DFW/FTW/AFW, and DAL/GKY will soon follow within the next hour or so. Winds speeds will remain near 10 knots or less for the this afternoon and will weaken below 5 knots this evening through the remainder of the period. Given the light wind speeds, wind direction may be variable at times tonight through Tuesday. Additional scattered showers and a few storms are expected to develop south of the I-20 corridor late tonight into early Tuesday morning. This activity may approach the KACT terminal, but coverage will be far less than we saw this morning. We`ll hold off on any mention in the TAF for now, but we`ll reassess once there is greater confidence in convective trends. MVFR stratus will develop across portions of the area tonight and has been introduced to the KACT TAF. The potential was too low to include in any of the D10 TAFs at this time, but this will be re-evaluated in future issuances. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 87 68 84 64 / 10 5 40 10 0 Waco 69 88 66 86 62 / 30 30 30 20 0 Paris 62 86 63 83 60 / 5 0 40 10 5 Denton 61 88 64 85 60 / 5 5 40 10 5 McKinney 62 88 65 85 60 / 5 5 40 10 0 Dallas 67 89 68 86 63 / 10 10 40 10 0 Terrell 65 89 65 85 60 / 20 10 30 10 0 Corsicana 69 90 67 86 63 / 30 30 20 20 0 Temple 68 89 66 89 61 / 30 30 30 20 0 Mineral Wells 61 88 64 85 59 / 20 10 40 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$