Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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576 FXUS64 KFWD 231840 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 140 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ A slow-moving cold front is currently draped along a Comanche-Fort worth-Gainesville line but isn`t particularly discernible outside of a weak northwest wind shift and a subtle drop in temperatures and dew points behind the front. Ongoing showers continue to weaken early this afternoon and will gradually diminish over the next couple of hours or so, with a lull in rain chances this evening into the overnight period. Clouds have started to scatter out across our northeast zones, with the rest of the forecast area expected to see some clearing by this evening. The lingering clouds will keep temperatures confined to the mid 70s to low 80s across most of the area, with some spots reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s across Central Texas where less cloud cover is expected through the afternoon. While most of tonight will be quiet and rain-free, another weak shortwave trough will skirt the Southern Plains, providing enough ascent for scattered showers and storms to develop late tonight into early Tuesday morning near the slow-moving front. Have kept PoPs confined to areas south of I-20, and coverage should be far less than what we saw this morning. The shortwave will gently usher the front through the remainder of the forecast area. However, the front will be quite washed out by the time this occurs. As a result, temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 80s areawide tomorrow. Most of the morning showers and storms should dissipate by late morning or midday, but isolated activity may linger across Central Texas through the afternoon. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ /Wednesday Onward/ Overview... No major weather impacts are expected during the extended forecast periods. The mid and late workweek will feature slightly below- normal temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s (low 50s across North Texas outside of the Metroplex). A warming trend is expected over the weekend into early next week. The best chance for rain will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with lower rain chances returning Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday will also be breezy, but below Wind Advisory criteria. Meteorological Discussion... The cooler weather and relatively quiet pattern later this week will largely be a result of being under the back side of a stout upper-level low over the Mississippi Valley. The primary shortwave trough for this low will move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, developing some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during this time. This trough should move south/east by Wednesday afternoon, with northerly flow aloft prevailing thereafter. Normally, that would be the end of the story for this feature and our attention would shift to what`s coming from the west. However, the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days with a disturbance currently in the western Caribbean Sea. Why does this matter? No, there is not a reasonable threat of landfall to the Texas Gulf coast, but the consensus in the guidance has the tropical system moving into Southeastern CONUS, then getting wrapped into the aforementioned upper-level low. 500 mb progs in the deterministic--and even the latest mean ensemble--guidance is indicating a high likelihood of the Fujiwhara effect occurring over the Central and Eastern CONUS late this week into this weekend. As this ensues, the upper low should deepen and shift west, bringing increased rain chances to the area Friday and Saturday. Also in response to this, a corridor of strong northerly winds develop across the Central Plains. Only about 10% of the guidance is suggesting wind speeds at or above our Wind Advisory criteria, but it should still be a breezy Friday and Saturday. As far as what happens to the tropical system as it merges into the parent upper low over the weekend, it should migrate entirely around the low. As it moves into and through the southwestern quadrant of the low, it will have the most influence on our local weather. What that influence will be is still largely TBD, but it doesn`t look to be overly impactful at this time. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Lingering IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to lift to VFR over the next few hours, with low clouds scattering out by this evening. Areas of rain continue south and east of D10 airspace, but this activity should gradually diminish over the next couple of hours or so. Winds have finally shifted out of the northwest at DFW/FTW/AFW, and DAL/GKY will soon follow within the next hour or so. Winds speeds will remain near 10 knots or less for the this afternoon and will weaken below 5 knots this evening through the remainder of the period. Given the light wind speeds, wind direction may be variable at times tonight through Tuesday. Additional scattered showers and a few storms are expected to develop south of the I-20 corridor late tonight into early Tuesday morning. This activity may approach the KACT terminal, but coverage will be far less than we saw this morning. We`ll hold off on any mention in the TAF for now, but we`ll reassess once there is greater confidence in convective trends. MVFR stratus will develop across portions of the area tonight and has been introduced to the KACT TAF. The potential was too low to include in any of the D10 TAFs at this time, but this will be re-evaluated in future issuances. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 67 87 66 83 / 80 10 5 40 20 Waco 84 69 88 65 86 / 60 30 30 30 20 Paris 81 62 86 63 81 / 80 5 0 30 20 Denton 79 61 88 64 83 / 70 5 5 50 20 McKinney 80 62 88 64 83 / 80 5 5 40 20 Dallas 81 67 89 66 85 / 80 10 10 40 20 Terrell 83 65 89 64 83 / 70 20 10 30 20 Corsicana 87 69 90 66 86 / 70 30 30 30 20 Temple 87 68 89 66 87 / 30 30 30 40 20 Mineral Wells 76 61 88 63 83 / 50 20 10 50 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$