884
FXUS64 KFWD 251033
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Scattered thunderstorms continue to push southward this morning
mainly across our eastern counties as a cold front slides south
through the region. The wind shift associated with the frontal
boundary has pushed through the Metroplex and is evident as a fine
line on radar from near Comanche to Waxahachie. Cooler air is
still back to the northwest a bit where temperatures are in the
lower 60s closer to Wichita Falls. Some scattered showers still
extend back to the northwest of the main line of convection from
Comanche to Stephenville to McKinney. These should be short lived
through the early morning hours and will tend to decrease in
coverage as the front moves farther south. Morning clouds will
linger for a few hours before scattering out leaving a mostly
sunny afternoon with temperatures in the 80s.

The only changes to the short term forecast were to update PoPs
based on latest radar trends.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Thursday/

Regional radar imagery shows a broken line of thunderstorms just
north of the Red River along a southward moving cold front. This
front will continue to move south overnight with convection
expected to increase in coverage as it approaches the I-20
corridor. A few of these storms could be severe with hail and
gusty winds, but the bulk of the activity should remain sub-
severe. We`ll maintain fairly high PoPs across the northeast half
of the CWA through the overnight hours, although there will likely
be a fairly sharp gradient in precipitation amounts from east to
west. The cold front will continue southward through the early
morning hours clearing our southern counties around midday. Cooler
and drier air will filter in behind the front will precipitation
chances ending. Breezy north winds and temperatures in the lower
80s can be expected through the afternoon.

Tonight will be clear and relatively cool with overnight lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s areawide as high pressure builds into
North Texas. Northerly flow will persist into Thursday with mostly
sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

No major changes to the extended forecast have occurred with the
overnight update. Near normal temperatures will prevail through
most of the period with a fairly quiet forecast in store for the
next several days.

Northerly surface winds will continue Friday with peak afternoon
gusts near 25-30 mph, as what is currently TS Helene weakens and
moves inland after its forecast landfall as a major hurricane in
Florida. As this occurs Thursday night, Helene will interact with
the upper level low situated just to our east, moving around the
northern periphery of the upper low before it becomes absorbed
into it`s stronger counterpart. Resultant moisture from the
tropical system will wrap around this low and enter eastern North
TX, allowing for low rain chances (20%) to return on Friday
generally north and east of areas from Bonham to Sulphur Springs.

The rest of the period will be rain-free with a slight warming
trend set to take place over the weekend and into early next
week. Near or slightly below normal high temperatures Friday in
the low and mid 80s will warm into the mid and upper 80s, with a
few locations hitting the low 90s Monday and Tuesday. Looking just
beyond the official forecast, a cold front looks to move through
the Plains which should bring a slight cool down midweek, but the
extent of which will likely change over the next several days.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move south along a
cold front this morning and have ended across the Metroplex
airports. Winds will remain a little chaotic in the wake of the
storms, but a northerly direction will prevail in the next hour or
so through the rest of the day. MVFR cigs have developed to the
north of the front and are expanding in coverage based on
satellite imagery. These low cigs will likely linger for a few
hours this morning before scattering our prior to midday. Once the
low cigs scatter later this morning, VFR will prevail through the
remainder of the period with north winds around 15 kt this
afternoon diminishing to around 5 kt tonight.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  63  84  63  83 /  10   0   0   5   5
Waco                82  61  84  59  85 /  20   0   0   0   5
Paris               82  58  82  59  79 /  20   0   0   5  20
Denton              84  59  84  59  85 /   5   0   0   5   5
McKinney            84  59  84  60  84 /  10   0   0   5  10
Dallas              83  63  85  63  85 /  10   0   0   5   5
Terrell             82  60  84  59  83 /  30   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           83  62  85  61  85 /  60   0   0   0   5
Temple              87  61  87  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       84  57  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$