601
FXUS64 KFWD 252211
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
511 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

North and Central Texas will remain sandwiched between a
mid/upper ridge over the Desert Southwest and a low pressure
system centered near Memphis through the end of the work week.
This pattern has ushered in a cold front, which has pushed south
into South and Southeast Texas, covering all of North and Central
Texas in a dry and seasonable airmass. Gusty north winds behind
the front will drop to 5 to 10 MPH after sunset, then increase to
10-15 MPH by midday Thursday. Dry air advection should continue to
scatter most of the post-frontal low cloud deck, though moisture
wrapping around the upper low may bring scattered low and mid
level clouds across the eastern half of the forecast area through
Thursday. Otherwise, overall pleasant weather can be expected
through tomorrow night with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend. Fairly quiet and
generally rain-free conditions can be expected as we end the
month. Afternoon highs will range in the mid to upper 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s. A few lucky locations may even see a
couple of mornings with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

A gradual warming trend will bring us through the weekend into
the start of next week. This is due to the influence of an upper
level low currently positioned across portions of the eastern
CONUS. Hurricane Helene will wrap around this upper level low
through the weekend, which will serve to increase large scale
subsidence over our region. Given the latest data from both
deterministic and ensemble guidance, we have opted to remove PoPs
from our northeastern counties due to increasing confidence that
the region will be within the dry slot of the upper level low
placed well off to our east. The aforementioned warming trend will
be slightly offset by continued northerly flow at the surface,
which will likely result in breezy conditions for portions of
North and Central Texas on Friday and Saturday. Wind gusts upwards
of 20 to 30 mph will be possible over this portion of the weekend.

Confidence decreases as we move into the middle of next week, but
there are some hints that another reinforcing cold front will
push through the region. Continue to check back for updates!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Gusty north winds behind a cold front will drop to 5-10 kt this
evening, then increase to 8-12 kt by midday Thursday. Skies should
clear tonight as low level flow decouples, with scattered (VFR)
clouds possible Thursday afternoon. A dry and stable airmass will
otherwise provide quiet aviation weather area-wide.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  85  63  83  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                61  85  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               59  84  59  80  62 /   0   0   5  10   5
Denton              59  85  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            60  85  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              63  86  63  84  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             61  85  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           62  86  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              61  86  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       58  85  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$