115
FXUS64 KFWD 161835
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
135 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday afternoon/

The main story this afternoon will be the threat for severe
weather and flooding mainly across the Central Texas counties as
a cluster of storms continues to move south. Latest
satellite/radar imagery show multiple clusters moving across the
southern central counties where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect until 5 pm. The main threats will be large hail, damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Additionally, periods of
heavy rainfall and/or training storms are expected resulting in
instances of flash flooding especially in low-lying areas and
near creeks and streams.

Behind this complex, light to moderate showers and storms will
continue to impact portions of North Texas with occasional
lightning strikes and pockets of heavy rain. Some of these storms
may contain small hail, but the atmosphere should be fairly
stable to limit this threat. Latest guidance show the bulk of the
precipitation should be east/south of our area by 6-7 pm, but a
few isolated/scattered storms may track across Central Texas and
along the Red River through midnight. Otherwise, cloudy conditions
are expected overnight with the potential for fog early Friday
morning. Light winds and abundant moisture should support at least
patchy fog across portions of the region.

One last round of scattered showers/storms are possible Friday
afternoon as the upper level trough finally progresses eastward.
Areas along the Red River will have the best potential (30-40%
PoPs) but areas as far south as the I-20 corridor could still see
some of this activity. Skies should slowly clear in the afternoon
with light northerly winds expected. Afternoon highs will stay in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

Rain chances will come to an end across East Texas early Saturday
morning as our storm system finally pushes off to the east.
Ridging aloft will take its place, with positive mid-level height
anomalies prevailing into the upcoming workweek assuring above
normal temperatures. A shortwave will transit the Plains late in
the weekend, dampening the flow, but it will neither reintroduce
rain chances nor inhibit the warming trend. By Monday, nearly
every location will see afternoon highs in the 90s. The subsequent
(more potent) disturbance will take a more southerly track, which
may guide a late-season cold front and associated rain chances
into our area. While this could shave a few degrees off daytime
temperatures, the current forecast will maintain above normal
highs regionwide for day 7 (Wednesday, May 22).

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Expect poor flying conditions to continue through Friday morning
due to isolated/scattered storms this afternoon and the return of
low ceilings/vsby late tonight. While most of the widespread
showers and storms have moved towards Central Texas, a few
isolated storms will continue through the afternoon with
occasional lightning. The rest of the evening should remain
fairly quiet, but MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities will
develop overnight given the abundant moisture and light and
variable winds expected. Conditions should improve by mid-morning
as skies begin to clear/scatter out. Otherwise, winds will remain
from the east/southeast through the evening before they become
light/variable tonight with northerly winds most of the day.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  81  67  91  71 /  50  20  10   5   0
Waco                65  82  65  88  70 /  50   5  10   5   0
Paris               63  79  63  87  65 /  60  50  20   5   0
Denton              62  80  63  89  68 /  50  30  10   0   0
McKinney            63  79  64  88  68 /  50  30  10   5   0
Dallas              65  82  67  91  70 /  40  20  10   5   0
Terrell             63  80  65  87  67 /  50  10  10   5   0
Corsicana           65  81  67  89  69 /  50  10  10   5   0
Temple              64  83  65  89  69 /  40   5  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       63  80  63  91  68 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ101>104-116>122-
130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$