032
FXUS64 KFWD 211930
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 109 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024/
/Through Wednesday Night/

Low cloud cover will gradually improve through the rest of the day as
daytime mixing continues across the region. This will allow skies
to clear out, leading to afternoon highs across North and Central
Texas to rise into the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Something
interesting to note is the gravity wave feature that is currently
moving through portions of North and Central Texas. This appears
to have increased mixing in the lower levels just enough to allow
the cap to erode a bit, as per the latest ACARS soundings. We are
already beginning to see convective attempts late this morning,
with a few elevated showers and storms already firing off. As we
move into the afternoon, increasing instability and a sharpening
dryline across our west will allow for a continued low chance for
isolated severe thunderstorms. Because of this, a mention of
thunderstorms will be maintained through the late evening, with a
quick improvement overnight as any convective activity should wane
rapidly after sunset. That being said, these storms will be
highly conditional. This will mainly hinge on how the cap evolves
through the rest of day and how strong it will through this
afternoon and evening as the dryline pushes into the region.

Overall confidence in the exact coverage, timing, and location of
these storms this afternoon and evening is low. Given the latest
hi-res guidance, initial convective attempts will continue through
around 4 to 6 PM this afternoon. Any storms that do manage to
fully develop will likely have large hail and damaging winds
associated with them. Increasing CIN will return across the region
after sunset as the EML is reestablished and the capping
inversion strengthens once again thanks to cooling within the
nocturnal boundary layer.

Our attention then turns to Wednesday, when our next round of
strong to severe storms will move through the region. This
activity will be much more widespread thanks to better forcing for
ascent associated with a trough that is located across the
Western CONUS. A couple of pieces of energy in the form of
shortwave pulses embedded within the parent trough to our west
will push across portions of North and Central Texas through
Wednesday evening. Increasing coverage may start as early as
Wednesday morning, with this trend continuing as we move into the
afternoon and evening. This activity will generally be associated
with an approaching cold front and the dryline. Any storms that
develop through Wednesday will be capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds, with a lower threat for tornadoes. This
tornado threat will be generally focused along a surface boundary
that will be present somewhere across North or Central Texas. In
addition, renewed flooding concerns may arise through tomorrow
night as well, which will be worth watching. Exact coverage
regarding specific locations will still need to be narrowed down
in future updates as confidence hopefully increases with more hi-
res model runs through tomorrow.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The previous long term forecast remains largely unchanged. We`ll
have another potential for severe weather on Thursday, which is
detailed in the previous discussion below. Several additional
chances for showers and storms are expected through early next
week, with perhaps additional opportunities for severe weather
both Friday and Saturday. Stay weather-aware, especially if you
have any outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. Additionally,
with the heat and humidity cranking up this weekend, ensure you
practice heat safety. Wear light-colored clothing, drink hydrating
fluids, and take frequent breaks in an air-conditioned space.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Onward/

A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a
shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be
ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red
River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low
level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between
I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm
development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a
90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the
resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will
lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and
damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front
may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent
warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado
development.

Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening,
with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near
the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally
heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue
where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind
down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually
dissipating during the overnight hours.

Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough
passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other
possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing
a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than
sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic
guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday,
but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of
convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through
Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The
persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development.
In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the
best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the
surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the
front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better
storm chances southward into Central Texas.

Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a
hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the
lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday
afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red
River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with
parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on
Saturday.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm
coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop
would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes
will send a cold front southward into the region once again on
Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight
chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the
front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but
drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next
week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 109 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Low Storm Chances, MVFR/IFR Ceilings Return Tomorrow.

MVFR ceilings this morning will gradually improve through about
20z as daytime mixing ramps up across the region. A generally
uneventful day will unfold once skies clear, although this may not
last for long. There is a low end potential for highly
conditional thunderstorms that will continue to develop along the
dryline off to our west. While direct impacts over the D10 TAF
sites appear unlikely due to a capping inversion, the Bowie and
Glen Rose corner posts may see their highest impacts on arrivals
between 00z to 03z this evening. The potential for direct impacts
to the D10 TAF sites remain low enough to keep out of the TAFs for
now, despite the addition of VCTS through 21z, but is at least
worth mentioning here. MVFR to potentially IFR stratus will push
in once again through tomorrow morning, with additional storm
chances through tomorrow. A mention in future TAF issuances
regarding these storm chances will likely be needed as we move
through this evening as confidence increases.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  89  73  86  74 /  20  50  40  50  30
Waco                76  89  74  88  75 /  20  30  20  40  30
Paris               73  86  70  84  70 /  20  70  70  50  60
Denton              74  88  71  85  72 /  20  60  50  60  30
McKinney            75  88  71  84  72 /  20  60  50  50  40
Dallas              76  90  73  87  76 /  20  50  40  50  30
Terrell             75  88  72  86  74 /  20  50  40  50  30
Corsicana           77  90  75  89  75 /  20  30  20  40  30
Temple              75  90  73  89  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Mineral Wells       74  88  71  86  70 /  20  60  40  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$