688
FXUS64 KFWD 270856
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
356 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/
/Through Saturday/

A stagnant weather pattern will persist into the weekend due to
the blocking implications of Helene on the mid-level flow regime.
This setup will support light northerly flow through the column,
with a fetch of dry air maintaining low humidity at the surface
characterized by dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s both today
and tomorrow. A fairly pleasant early fall weekend will be the
result, despite high temperatures climbing to above normal values
in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A plume of mid/high cloud cover
associated with Helene should overspread parts of northeast Texas
tomorrow, perhaps holding highs a couple of degrees lower than
today. The low dewpoints will allow overnight lows to fall very
effectively, with a handful of readings in the 50s possible
outside of urban environments. Overhead subsidence and a dearth of
column moisture will keep rain chances at zero through the short
term period.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Night Onward/

An uneventful week is ahead weather wise, with rain-free
conditions and slightly above normal temperatures expected. The
stagnant upper low over the Ohio River Valley at the start of the
period will finally be forced eastward with a northern stream
trough approaching the Midwest Monday into Tuesday. As this shifts
east, the influence of the mid- and upper-level ridge to the west
will expand further into North and Central TX. The northern
stream trough will also send a weak cold front into the Southern
Plains Tuesday, but this will largely go unnoticed and temperatures
will remain similar. Moisture will increase slightly in the mid
to late week as southerly winds return at the surface, but
conditions should still be somewhat comfortable with dewpoints in
the upper 50s/low 60s. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper
80s and low 90s each day with overnight lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/
/06z TAFs/

VFR/SKC will prevail through the period with a north wind. While
speeds are currently light at 5 kts or less, expect an increase
to 10-15 kts later today with a few gusts near 20 kts this
afternoon.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  65  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                88  62  89  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               84  62  85  62  86 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              88  61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            87  61  88  63  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              87  65  89  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             86  62  88  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           89  64  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              91  61  91  60  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       89  60  89  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$