Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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598 FXUS65 KGJT 232326 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 526 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms may linger over southwest Colorado through sunset otherwise dry conditions are expected. - Dry and warm conditions are expected during the remainder of the week as high pressure settles over the region. Near record highs are expected from Thursday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Weak troughing aloft will be transitioning to an expansive and strong ridge over the next 24 hours or so. There is some last gasp convection forming over the southern terrain this afternoon as a result...but after this a prolonged dry and warm period will be setting up. Perfect fall weather...though it will still feel like summer as temperatures warm well above normal. Highs tomorrow look to start out 2 to 5 degrees above climatology then pushing 10 to 15 above by the end of the week. Overnight lows will continue to be cool in this dry pattern. With lingering low level moisture isolated areas of morning fog popped up in some of the valleys this morning. With a drying profile this should become less likely but this remains a low confidence forecast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An omega "blockish" pattern sets up by Wednesday with low pressure off the SoCal Coast and in the Mississippi Valley with ridging along the Rocky Mountains. It`s only "blockish" in that the western half of the pattern lacks jet support with the jet remaining well to the north in a zonal flow that keeps the ridging knocked down, especially later in the period when the ridging limited to Colorado and New Mexico. Being in the shoulder season, leaning on the ensemble mean forecasts in the long term gives similar solutions through the extended forecast period. That being said, confidence falls somewhat beyond Friday or Saturday with the deterministic GFS and some ensemble members digging a deep trough into the Pacific Northwest by Sunday bringing unsettled weather to the region. Though this is a minority solution, it is feasible with lack of jet support to the west. We`ll just have to wait and see how this plays out. That being said, the extended forecast through next Monday for eastern Utah and Western Colorado is for dry conditions under mostly sunny skies and generally light, terrain driven breezes. Temperatures will run eight to 13 degrees above the seasonal normal temperatures for early Fall through the period with the lower valleys on the higher end and the mountains on the lower end. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A few, very isolated showers and a quick storm or two have popped over the San Juans this afternoon but they won`t affect any TAF sites. The remainder of the evening will see the cumulus clouds over the higher terrain dissipating while high clouds continue to stream overhead. VFR conditions will remain in place with light winds expected. Did not put any fog in for KGUC in the morning but this possibility will need to be watched. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT