Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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800 FXUS63 KGLD 271722 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1122 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through the upcoming weekend. - Near critical to briefly critical fire weather conditions are possible along and west of the Colorado border Saturday through Monday afternoons. - Near to below average temperatures expected in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 307 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Today we will get to see a pattern transition over the Great Plains as an upper trough moves over the Rockies and across the region. This trough is expected to push the ridge south as it moves southeast to interact with our "no-rain providing system" from last weekend and Hurricane Helene over the eastern CONUS. This interaction will lead to the upper trough lingering over the Tri- State area through Saturday while the ridge builds back up over the Rockies. Near the surface a broad area of high pressure will strengthen over the Colorado Rockies into the Black Hills, keeping the area dry. Temperatures will be above normal in the 80s to lower 90s the next two days. There is some concern for near critical to briefly critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon along and west of the Colorado border as RH values fall below 20% and south to southeast winds gust to 20 mph. Overnight lows will likely be in the upper 40s to lower 50s each night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 416 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Sunday and Monday continue to be forecast to be warm with highs around 90 with the influence from the upper ridge. Both days also have concerns for some critical fire conditions (mainly counties along the Colorado border) as the dry conditions are forecast to continue for the area. The question Sunday is how strong winds will get with the ridge overhead, they may be too light to reach critical levels. Monday is dependent on the timing of the frontal passage. The remnants of the hurricane upstream may still have a blocking low that could delay the passage of the front. If the front move through later in the day, temperatures could warm to 90 and RH drop into the teens while the increase in height and pressure gradient allows winds to increase with gusts to 30-35 mph. This seems to be the more likely scenario, but there is still some decent spread in the models so will see if it holds. Once the front passes, temperatures should be cooler for at least one day (likely Tuesday unless the front is early Monday). After that, the mid week would likely moderate a bit with some zonal flow. How long that lasts is the question as guidance has quite a bit of variance in how the upper pattern varies with some blocking in the east still possible. Currently leaning towards hot and dry with some upper ridging suggested by ensembles. Temps could warm back towards 90. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds are forecast to remain under 10 kts through the period, too. We are expecting a few wind shifts starting around 6Z, but winds will weaken to around 6 kts at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...CA