Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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983 FXUS63 KGLD 260350 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 950 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average to slightly above average temperatures and dry conditions expected through the upcoming weekend. - There is the potential for a system to move through at the beginning of next week, bringing near to below average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A pronounced upper level ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies to the High Plains (today-tonight), stalling over the region Thu-Thu night. Expect benign weather characterized by clear skies, dry conditions and light southerly winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Fri-Sun: Long range guidance continues to indicate that a broad upper ridge will prevail over the majority of the lower 48 in this period -- albeit with a cut-off low trapped therein, meandering invof the Central/Southern MS River Valley where it will inevitably (and somewhat uniquely) interact with Tropical Cyclone Helene. As long as the cut-off low remains well downstream of the Tri-State area (as guidance presently indicates).. expect benign weather and near average temperatures. Monday-ish: Long range guidance indicates cooler temperatures and breezy north winds assoc/w a dry cold frontal passage in/around this period. The aforementioned cold front appears to be synoptically driven, e.g. associated with a progressive upper trough in the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies over Canada and the far northern CONUS. In such a pattern, confidence is relatively high that a cold frontal passage will occur in the lee of the northern and central Rockies. Whether or not (and/or to what extent) impactful fire weather will arise will highly depend upon specific aspects of the frontal passage, e.g. timing and magnitude, both of which are difficult to confidently assess at this range. Tue-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies will descend from on-high (Canada) to lesser latitudes (CONUS) in this period, though.. considerable disagreement persists with regard to the nature of the pattern, e.g. by 12Z Thu the GFS solution is 180 degrees out of phase with the ECMWF solution. With the above in mind.. the forecast will be steered toward climatology. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A southerly wind around 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 16z, increasing a bit with gusts up to 20kts from 17z-22z. After 23z, southeast winds up to 11kts veer to the south. KMCK...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A light and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 15z. After 16z, south to southeast winds up to 10kts are expected except in the 18z-22z timeframe when southerly winds gust to around 20kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent/KAK AVIATION...99