Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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558 FXUS63 KGLD 232037 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 237 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers tonight into Tuesday morning. - Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Across the CWA this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure transitions through the area. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging in the 70s with light/variable winds. The main wx concerns for the short term period will focus on shower potential later this evening into early Tuesday morning as a surface trough/weak shortwave move southeast through the area. The system is currently over NW Nebraska and points north. The latest CAMs (NamNest/HRRR) show scattered 15-20% chances for RW to begin around 03z Tuesday, pushing through the region by 12z Tuesday. Weak instability, low PW values as dewpts are currently in the 40s but will drop further into the 20s overnight. This is seen on the current obs near/behind the boundary. This will result in little change from previous forecast with best precip chances in the E/NE. Going into Tuesday, looking for a decent northerly gradient ahead of a surface ridge behind the system coming through. LAV guidance suggests 20-25 mph possible around midday, but could be isolated. Other than this, high pressure will dominate the area for dry weather. For temps, a range from the upper 70s into the lower 80s will persist in the short term period, especially around midweek. The trend will have western locales be the warmest. Lows in the 50s tonight will give way to 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show much of the extended period having amplified upper level ridging over the central Plains. This is going to provide dry conditions to the area with near/above normal temperatures. Guidance does bring a meandering, retrograding upper low from the lower Mississippi Valley towards eastern KS before lifting east. At most some increased clouds expected in the eastern zones early Saturday morning, otherwise sunny skies will prevail. For the late in the weekend period into next Monday, a closed upper low works across the north central Plains w/ a trailing cold front through the CWA in the Mon-Mon night timeframe. The passage will bring some decent CAAa into the area for round of below normal temps. 850mb temps for this time range +4c to +8c. The two models do differ on the surge of a strong surface ridge into the area behind the front, which could delay/increase the CAA into the area by Monday night. Some gusts ahead of the ridge initially could approach the 30-35 mph range. For temps, looking for highs on Friday through the upcoming weekend to range in the upper 70s into the lower 80s. Warmest areas each day will be mainly west of Highway 25. Going into next Monday, 70s return area-wide. Lows Thursday night will range in the 40s. For Fri- Sun nights, 40s west into the lower 50s east, followed by slightly colder air Monday night with a range from the upper 30s to lower 40s in Colorado to the lower and mid 40s east of there. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1019 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Both terminals expected to see VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds for KGLD, southwest around 10kts through 09z Tuesday. There could be a period of light/variable from 22z Mon-03z Tue. From 09z onward, north-northwest around 10kts. Winds for KMCK, south 5-10kts through 00z Tuesday, then light/variable. By 12z, becoming northwest around 10kts. There is a low(15%) chances for showers/sprinkles to fall over the terminals, especially KMCK. Do not expect impacts from these at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN