Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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606 FXUS63 KGRB 281118 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 618 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected late this morning into this evening. Severe weather is not expected, but small hail could occur in the stronger storms. - Due to recent rainfall, a few rivers are expected to remain at bankfull but below minor flooding. - Areas of patchy frost are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across far northern Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday Shower and thunderstorm strength and extent into this evening is primary focus. Broad troughing aloft is present from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes to start off the day. Embedded sharper shortwaves within the trough continue to drive the show in terms of coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Wave that brought the showers and storms to end the Memorial Day holiday weekend on Monday is dropping across the central Great Lakes, though a few lingering showers remain over east-central WI. These will diminish before daybreak. Another batch of lighter showers is slowly rotating across western Lake Superior and western Upper Michigan ahead of what appears to be the last sharp shortwave that will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region later today. A few showers or sprinkles will drift across northern WI this morning, but most locations will see likely chances for showers and some thunder this afternoon into early this evening as the wave drops across the region and interacts with peak heating of the day. Effective shear is weaker at 25 kts or less so not expecting severe storms. However, with lower wbzero heights (5-7kft) and steeper mid-level lapse rates, small hail could occur in just about any stronger shower or storm this afternoon. Forecast soundings are fairly moist and sfc-delta theta-e values look unfavorable, so strong wind gusts appear unlikely. But, could see wind gusts to 40 mph where 0-3km lapse rates are highest in the far south and southeast part of the forecast area. High temps today will still be a bit below normal with readings only as warm as the upper 60s in the far southern part of the area. Normal highs are in the lower 70s. Tonight, chances for showers and a rumble of thunder will linger through late evening, then slowly fade after midnight as the shortwave will still be in the vcnty. Clouds will diminish late, but given amount of clouds upstream this morning over Ontario, bumped up cloud cover some over north- central WI late tonight when most guidance tries to clear things out completely. Lows will depend on extent of cloud cover. Stuck toward continuity for now with upper 30s far north and upper 40s southeast. Wednesday will be dry but feature decent coverage of fair weather cu blossoming late morning into the afternoon especially central WI. Highs will still be a touch below normal, but should reach the upper 60s most locations. Locations along Lake Michigan will remain around 60 into the lower 60s with northerly flow in wake of the system that moves through later today and to the south and east of high pressure building in from Ontario to the Upper Mississippi river valley. Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday The extended will see a longer period of dry conditions arrive from the middle to end of the work week. The next chance for some more widespread rainfall and storms will arrive next weekend. Wednesday night through Friday...A high amplitude ridge will be working its way across the region at the beginning of the extended Wednesday. Temperatures under the ridge will be fairly cool, especially Wednesday night when clear skies, light winds, and a dry air mass may bring a window for frost to northern Wisconsin. Winds will gradually turn south to southwesterly again Thursday and Friday, which will bring back some warmer air and Gulf moisture for the weekend. Included some low pops for late Friday if the upper ridge moves out more quickly than expected, but most locations, especially those in eastern WI, should still see a dry day for Friday. Rest of the forecast...The return of more southwesterly flow will bring moisture back to the region for the weekend. As a result, models also bring back the active weather. As of this forecast cycle, Saturday and Sunday show two rounds of active weather, the first with a round of warm air advection as a shortwave pushes south of the area and then the second as another weak cold front follows on Sunday. Timing on this precipitation remains variable, but would expect interim dry periods for any one location between rainfall. Depending on the timing of the rain, Sunday also will see a chance to get highs into the lower to middle 80s across the area. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A few showers will be around through mid morning, then showers and some thunderstorms will blossom midday through the afternoon as a stronger system crosses the area. The greatest chance for storms will occur over the southwest half this afternoon. Continued to carry a TEMPO group to cover the storms at AUW/CWA/ATW/GRB. In general even with the showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. However, brief MVFR conditions will accompany any storms. Lingering showers and storms will end by late evening over central Wisconsin and during the overnight hours across east-central Wisconsin. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA/Uhlmann AVIATION.......JLA