Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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966 FXUS63 KGRB 251956 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 256 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain is likely Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Non severe thunderstorms are possible south of a Wausau to Green Bay line. Up to an inch of rain is likely west of a Niagara to Waupaca line, with 1 to 2 inches expected in the Fox Valley and lakeshore counties. Some minor flooding of streets and small stream is possible. - A few rivers over central and eastern Wisconsin could surpass minor flood stage early next week. - Patchy frost is possible Wednesday night through Thursday morning across the far north. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Sunday After a beautiful sunny day today, clouds will increase tonight as an upper level trough and a low pressure system at ground level approach from the Southern Plains. The clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees above normal overnight. Sunday morning should be dry in most places, but rain will arrive from southwest to northeast during the day, with rain falling all across the area by late afternoon. Some thunderstorms are possible south of a Green Bay to Wausau line, but not severe. Locally heavy rain is likely especially across east central and far Northeast Wisconsin late Sunday afternoon and night, as the surface low strengthens. Computer models suggest that an inch or two of rain may fall east of a Niagara to Waupaca line, with less to the west. That amount of rain could produce street flooding in urban areas and bring small streams to bankfull. High temperatures will be early in the day Sunday, as they will fall after the rain arrives. Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday The extended sees the current active pattern quieting down toward mid-week following a couple rounds of precip Sunday evening through Tuesday. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible during this time, especially across east-central and northeast Wisconsin. The remainder of the extended then looks to be mostly dry as an omega block sets up across the central CONUS. As a result, temperatures will begin a gradual incline through the end of the week. Sunday evening through Tuesday precip chances... Mid-level shortwave energy will spin up a surface low over the central Plains before tracking up into the Great Lakes Monday morning. Warm air advection precip is expected to be ongoing across east-central and northeast Wisconsin Sunday evening before departing overnight. Most convective elements (moisture, shear, instability) look to be trapped in the warm sector to our south, thus not too impressed with storm chances making it this far north. Overall thinking is that a widespread inch of QPF is possible across the forecast area through Monday, although a corridor of 1.25 to 1.5" PWATs out ahead of the warm front may result in locally higher QPFs (1.5+") with some assistance from weak isentropic lift. Forecast for the rest of Monday into Tuesday remains volatile as a trailing shortwave brings additional chances for rain/storms to the forecast area. No surface features or forcing mechanisms are expected to accompany this shortwave, hence precip is expected to be much lighter Monday evening into Tuesday. This being said, a rumble of thunder wouldn`t be out of the question across central Wisconsin Monday afternoon. Any storms that do pop up are not currently expected to be severe. Rest of the extended... The rest of the extended looks relatively quiet as a higher amplitude blocking pattern sets up across the central CONUS. A combination of robust upper-level ridging and building surface high pressure will place most of the Midwest under a south/southwest flow regime, acting to drag warmer air up from the south. Consequently, temperatures will be on a steady incline through the end of the week before potentially hitting 80 degrees on Saturday. It is worth mentioning that calm winds and minimal cloud cover may drop temperatures down into the mid 30s in the far north early Thursday morning, possibly enough to warrant areas of patchy frost. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR flight conditions will continue through Sunday morning. Skies will be mostly clear today, with increasing middle and high clouds overnight. A low pressure system, moving from Kansas to Lower Michigan will bring showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. The thunderstorms should be generally south of a CWA to GRB line. FLight conditions will be mostly MVFR Sunday afternoon, and IFR Sunday night. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....RDM/Goodin AVIATION.......RDM