627
FXUS63 KGRR 221805
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

- Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve

Quiet weather through Thursday night...then a cold front will be
pushing through the CWA Friday evening. Scattered showers/storms
will be developing along and ahead of this feature as it moves in.
Models do varying with how much surface based instability will
develop. The GFS/Nam have been featuring the most with values
topping 1000 J/kg into the evening, while the ECMWF and Canadian
have kept values mostly under 500 J/kg and have the instability
focused over southwest parts of the CWA.

The winds at 500 mb are not projected to be very strong, under 30
knots. There will be a low level jet in that area, 30 to 35 knots
that will likely enhance the potential for storms. With lower
values of deep layer shear, any storms that develop will likely be
pulse in nature. Overall though with several models struggling to
develop any instability, confidence on their occurrence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Gusty winds will continue for a few more hours as the deeper
mixing leads to stronger wind gusts. Values will occasionally top
20 knots. Based off of satellite imagery loops, mainly scattered
cloud cover will occur this afternoon as drier air prevails. The
current MVFR ceilings around KMKG will lift into MVFR before
scattering out this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Waves are still near or above 4 feet this afternoon but winds are
slowly decreasing and only a few gusts over 25 knots are expected
for the rest of the afternoon. Winds and waves will be decreasing
into Thursday and Friday then increasing on Saturday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJS/Ostuno
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Ostuno