Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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978 FXUS63 KGRR 270122 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 922 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds Friday - Rain chances Saturday through Tuesday - Drier and cooler mid-week next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Cirrostratus covers much Lower Michigan east and south of Ludington, a little farther northwest than the 12z HREF was suggesting. Some models including the HRRR and ARW have been trying to saturate the near-surface layer late tonight around Lansing to Mount Pleasant, though this may be overdone as winds just above the surface will increase to 15-20 knots which should lessen the fog threat along with the high clouds. The only patchy fog mention will be in northern Clare county (and to the north) where winds are weaker and cirrus thinner. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 - Gusty winds Friday The low level pressure gradient increases considerably tonight and more so on Friday. Looking at Bufkit and mixing heights for tomorrow, we may see gusts into the 35 to 40 mph range, especially south of I-96. These values are supported by the latest ensemble gusts from the various models. Such values commonly lead to isolated power outages. No headlines at this time but we will mention the stronger gusts in social media posts. It`s worth noting that if we do mix slightly deeper than forecast, gusts could start to reach into the advisory level, which will need to be monitored with future forecasts. - Rain chances Saturday through Tuesday Run to run consistency remains high with regards to the main players in the weather. The main players are the upper low centered currently near the Bootheel of Missouri, and what is left of Hurricane Helene as it gets absorbed by the upper low. The majority of the weather with the upper low and remnants of Helene is expected to remain south of Michigan as the upper low wraps Helene to the WNW, and the upper high tries to hold on over the area. The systems will be close enough that Southern Lower will see occasional rain shower chances Saturday through Monday with additional moisture moving overhead, and impulses on the northern periphery of the low rotating from east to west across Lower Michigan. Can not rule out some thunder late Saturday. The better chance of some thunder will be Sunday and Monday afternoons during peak heating. The upper low will get a kick then by late Monday by another stronger upper jet and upper trough digging into the middle portion of the country. This trough will bring a fairly decent fall cold front through Monday night/Tuesday. A few showers/storms will be possible along the front, but there will not be good moisture to interact with it, as it will be swept out with the weekend low. - Drier and cooler mid-week next week Once the front moves through earlier on Tuesday, a decent amount of cool fall air will surge in from the NW. Max temperatures can be expected to be 10 degrees cooler or so for Wednesday into Thursday. Strong subsidence building in over the area will assure dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 755 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with only high level cloudiness expected. As hurricane (or remnants of) Helene move into the Ohio Valley by late Friday, ENE winds will increase across southern Lower MI between the approaching tropical system and surface high pressure to the north. Wind gusts in excess of 25 kts are likely by midday, particularly along the I-94 corridor (AZO/BTL/JXN). && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The pressure gradient will be on the increase tonight and more so on Friday. The winds up around 925 mb are shown to increase to 40 knots or higher over the southern parts of the nearshore area Friday morning. While we are not forecast to mix to that level over the water, the winds will increase considerably. At this time, most of the guidance supports gusts to 30 knots for the southern half of the marine area, where we will issue a small craft advisory. The main period for higher wind speeds is from 12z Fri to 12z Sat. For the north half, it`s not until Fri evening that the winds may reach into hazardous levels, so we will hold off on any headlines there. With an offshore component to the wind, the waves will be limited in height until closer the the 5 nm mark. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>846. && $$ UPDATE...CAS DISCUSSION...MJS/NJJ AVIATION...Smith MARINE...MJS/Thielke