710
FXUS64 KHGX 270406
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1106 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

High pressure will continue to build across the Southern Plains
as the departing frontal boundary moves well offshore. This
pattern will remain with us as Hurricane Helene moves over the
Southeastern CONUS. Therefore, a drier and less humid airmass will
prevail during the short-term period. Mostly clear skies, light
north winds and low humidity will lead to a cooler night.
Overnight lows will generally range into the upper 50s to upper
60s.

Despite cooler nights, temperatures will gradually climb into the
upper 80s to low 90s on Friday thanks to the influence of the
upper and sfc ridge of high pressure. These temperatures are still
near seasonal for late September standards. The good news is that
humidity levels will remain on the "comfortable" side as surface
dewpoints drop into the 50s to 60s degF range.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Minimal pattern changes can be expected in the long term period
as the region remains "locked" within the ridge. Dry and less
humid conditions are expected to continue into the weekend. Global
models bring some mid to high clouds (wrap around clouds)
associated with Hurricane Helene this weekend. However, with PWs
at or below 1 inch, conditions should remain generally dry. A
surface low/trough will develop across the western Gulf/middle TX
coast early next week. This will result in an uptick in low-level
moisture as winds transition to the south-southeast. Despite a
slow increase of moisture from the coast, rain/storm chances will
be very low to none...only a few showers over the Gulf waters
early in the week. Humidity, on the other hand, will gradually
increase as sfc dew points increase into the 60s and 70s degF
range after midweek, next week.

850 mb temperatures suggest a gradual warming trend as we head
into the weekend and the upcoming week. Highs are progged to climb
into the low to mid 90s...overall, 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Overnight lows will slightly increase the upcoming week with
values generally in the 70s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR vis/cigs to prevail through the forecast period. Winds will
increase somewhat by late morning or early afternoon. However,
winds will not be as gusty as they were on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

With the frontal boundary already well offshore, moderate to
strong north-northeast winds and seas will gradually
weaken/subside late this afternoon/early this evening. Light to
occasionally offshore winds can be expected into the weekend. A
weak boundary/surface trough will develop along the western Gulf
late this weekend into early next week. This pattern will bring
light to moderate onshore winds into the region along with a few
showers through the remainder of the upcoming week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  87  65  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  72  87  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM